In the current period (October 2023 - January 2024) 17 percent of the population of the 25 districts analysed, or 1.31 million people, are facing high levels acute food insecurity (IPC Phase 3 or above), with 43,000 people in IPC Phase 4 (Emergency). The most affected districts are Ambovombe Androy, Amboasary Atsimo, Bekily in the Grand Sud, and Befotaka, Nosy Varika, Ikongo in the Grand Sud-Est.

For the first projected period (February-April 2024), a rapid deterioration is expected due to the seasonal lean season. Overall, 1.71 million people, or 22 percent of the population, are expected to be in IPC Phase 3 or above with 119,000 in Phase 4.

In the second period (May-September 2024), a mild improvement is expected, particularly in Grand Sud. Approximately 1.08 million people are expected be in Phase 3 or above including 27,000 in Phase 4.

• Maintain humanitarian response in districts in IPC Phase 3 or above during the peak of the lean season from February to April 2024, in order to reduce significant food consumption deficits and save lives.
• Support the start of the major agricultural season which would be exposed to a significant rainfall deficit by favouring Climate-Smart Agriculture (CSA) techniques and short-cycle variety seeds by prioritizing areas close to water points or by developing alternative activities such as short-cycle livestock breeding, which provides a source of income and thus facilitates access to food.
• Scale up anticipatory actions to mitigate the induced effects of El Niño.
• Strengthen the coordination of interventions between humanitarian and development actors for better synergy of activities, through convergent actions in the most affected areas and while empowering more decentralized structures.