Between June and September 2026, an estimated 222,000 people (18 percent of the analysed population) are experiencing high levels of acute food insecurity (IPC Phase 3 or above, Crisis or worse). This marks a 2‑percentage‑point increase compared with the same period last year, rising from 16 percent (193,000 people) to 18 percent (222,000 people). The deterioration is driven mainly by irregular rainfall, persistently high food prices, reduced household incomes, and livestock disease.

Conditions are expected to worsen further between October 2026 and March 2027, a seasonal decline reinforced by the projection period coinciding with the lean season. The population in Phase 3 or above is projected to increase by 5 percent compared with the current period. Approximately 264,000 people (21 percent) are expected to be in IPC Phase 3 (Crisis), and 22,000 people (2 percent) in IPC Phase 4 (Emergency). In total, 286,000 people (23 percent) are projected to face Phase 3 or above, up from 259,000 during the same period last year—an 11‑percent year‑on‑year increase.

• Scale up emergency Humanitarian Food Security Assistance (HFSA), nutrition support, and cash-based transfers to households in IPC Phase 3 or above to address immediate food consumption gaps and prevent acute malnutrition. Expand targeted food assistance, supplementary and therapeutic feeding programmes, and cash-based transfers prioritising the most vulnerable households.
• Strengthen agricultural input support and livestock disease control to protect upcoming production and safeguard livestock based livelihoods. Provide affordable agricultural inputs and drought-tolerant seeds aligned with forecasts, while strengthening Foot-and-Mouth Disease (FMD) surveillance and control measures to minimise livestock-related income losses.
• Enhance market monitoring, price stabilisation, and short-term employment schemes to protect household purchasing power. Establish labour-based cash-for-work programmes and income generating schemes for vulnerable households.
• Strengthen early warning systems and emergency WASH interventions to reduce the impacts of climate shocks and prevent waterborne disease outbreaks. Implement emergency water trucking, borehole rehabilitation, and hygiene promotion in drought-prone communitie.