In the April-June 2016 period, the IPC acute analysis revealed that over 24% of rural households in the analyzed areas are classified in IPC Phase 3 (Crisis), and 5% in Phase 4 (Emergency) and require urgent assistance to protect livelihoods and relieve food consumption gaps. The main causes for the deterioration of the food consumption and livelihoods of households in “Crisis” and “Emergency” Phases include crop failure, limited or no livestock ownership, limited income sources, etc.

Slight deterioration from July to September 2016: Due to an overall significant decrease in food production compared to the previous year, particularly in Hhohho and Lubombo regions (64% and 88% lower production compared to the 2014/2015 season, respectively), the number of households in “Crisis” situation (IPC Phase 3) is expected to slightly increase, with an additional estimated 5% of the population currently in “Stressed” conditions (IPC Phase 2) expected to move into IPC Phase 3 as they run out of their limited food stocks. It is foreseen that an estimated 35% of the population will remain in Phase 1 (“Minimal”). This includes households who harvested sufficient crops and own livestock that can be sold sustainably. Around 30% of households are expected to experience stress and instability (IPC Phase 2), compared to 36% in the current period. Households in this phase maintain minimally adequate food consumption, but are unable to afford essential non-food expenditures without using negative “coping strategies”, which include relying on less preferred food, purchasing cheaper foods and using unsustainable livelihood strategies. Overall, the 35% of the households classified in IPC Phase 3 (30%) and IPC Phase 4 (5%) include mainly those who faced total crop failure or harvested limited quantities of crops, have limited access to lowlands with water facilities for the second season; little or no animals to sell and are heavily reliant on their own food production and sale of agricultural products. The majority of these households are among the poorest.

Worsening situation from October 2016 to February 2017: During this period, the situation is expected to worsen for the following reasons: (i) due to limited soil moisture, the second season’s crops will most likely be limited, even in the areas expecting good rainfall; (ii) more households will have run out of their food stocks from the first season – for those who had any, and (iii) prices are expected to remain high or further increase. Although the situation will deteriorate, it is expected that some households will be able to turn to other sources of income during this time, such as casual labor, migration and selling animals. In general, 20% to 40% of households (depending on the areas) that still have some agricultural reserve, and/or have animals and/or other sources of income will remain in IPC Phase 1 as they will be able to access sufficient food without further stressing their livelihoods. Some households that are projected in IPC Phase 2 during the July-September period are likely to shift into IPC Phase 3 from October onwards as food stocks from households’ own production from the first and second season are expected to be depleted and reliance on purchase increase in a context of high prices, thereby affecting purchasing power. For this period (Oct. 2016 – Feb. 2017), it is estimated that 30% to 55% of households, depending on the areas, will be in IPC Phase 3 or 4. These are the households that will have no food stocks left, no or very limited access to other sources of income, and/or have already sold animals or do not have livestock to sell. These households are likely to become increasingly dependent on consumption of wild foods and engage in unsustainable livelihood activities, such as charcoal sale. It is estimated that up to 15% of households in the most affected areas (i.e. Lubombo and Shiselweni) will be in PC Phase 4 between October 2016 and February 2017.

Recommendations for policy and decision makers

• For the estimated 9% of people in IPC Phase 4 (ranging from 0% to 15% depending on the area) in the most affected areas, particularly Labombo region, between the current period and the end of the projections (February 2017), it is recommended that government and partners provide humanitarian assistance urgently in order to prevent loss of livelihoods and rising acute malnutrition. Although detailed household profile analyses were not conducted as part of this IPC analysis, it is assumed that the households in IPC Phase 4 are poor households that usually do not have access to other food sources except for their own production, face total crop failure and have no livestock to sell. Given the high level of acute food insecurity that these households are facing, urgent interventions are required to alleviate the current gaps in food consumption. Relief activities should be complemented with measures to increase the resilience of these households to climate related shocks, such as diversifying livelihoods (e.g. supporting livestock raising and fishing), advanced education, among others.
  
  
• For the estimated 20-40% of people in IPC Phase 3 in the most affected areas of Lubombo, Manzini and Shiselweni, between the current period and the end of the projections period (February 2017), it is recommended that government and partners implement urgent humanitarian aid in order to protect their livelihoods by preventing loss of assets and reduce gaps in food consumption. Given the relatively lower gaps that households have as compared to those in IPC Phase 4, the amount of per-capita assistance or the duration should be lower compared to households classified in IPC Phase 4. Relief activities should be complemented with activities aimed at increasing the resilience of these households to climate change, such as those mentioned above.
  
  
• For the estimated 25-40% of people in IPC Phase 2, in all the regions, between the current period and the end of the projection, it is recommended that the government and partners implement activities aimed at increasing household resilience. The population residing in food insecure areas should be supported in designing new projects directed to livelihood protection and disaster risk reduction. The aim of these programmes should be to support households’ ability to meet their food needs in the short term, while generating community assets that support local agricultural production, income generation and build resilience to climate related shocks in future. However, these activities have lower priority than those needed for households in Emergency and Crisis (IPC Phase 3 and 4). 
  
  
• It is recommended to strengthen coordination mechanisms among stakeholders for effective and timely delivery of assistance to reduce long-term impacts. 
  
  
• Regarding analysis and monitoring of Food Insecurity in Swaziland, it is recommended that the Government and partners actively collaborate and support with human and financial resources the collection of primary data under the coordination of the SVAC, sustainable storage of historical data, as well as training of provincial and national staff in Food Insecurity analysis and IPC.