In the current period (July to September 2020), around 10% of the population (1.69 million people) are facing high levels of acute food insecurity (IPC Phase 3) or higher and require urgent action to reduce food gaps, protect and restore livelihoods, and prevent acute malnutrition. Out of the 32 areas analysed, including 28 districts and four cities, 30 areas are classified in Stressed (IPC Phase 2), while two areas (Chitipa and the Island of Likoma on Lake Malawi) are classified in No Acute Food Insecurity (IPC Phase 1).

During the projected period of October 2020 to March 2021, around 15% of the population (2.62 million people) are expected to be in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) or higher. All the analysed cities (Lilongwe, Blantyre, Mzuzu and Zomba), along with the three rural districts of Nsanje, Neno and Balaka, will likely be in Crisis (IPC Phase 3). Whilst the remaining areas are likely to be in Stressed (IPC Phase 2). Those classified in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) include poor urban and rural households in the deficit-producing southern region, as well as some parts of the northern, and central districts. These areas have experienced floods and dry spells that caused a production shortfall and led to a slow livelihood recovery from previous seasons. The impacts of COVID-19 mitigation measures have also had an effect on remittance- dependent households.

Response Priorities

The following response priorities are proposed for the current period:

• Urgent action is required to save lives, reduce food consumption gaps and protect livelihoods for populations in Crisis (IPC Phase 3);
• Reduce food consumption gaps by improving access to food, through appropriate modalities for households in urban areas;
• Strengthen prevention measures against COVID-19;
• Promote resilience/climate smart agricultural production;
• Ensure the nutrition situation is monitored regularly;
• Promote interventions that reduce the impact of COVID-19 control measures on urban populations;
• Mount campaigns to promote dietary diversification among communities.

Situation Monitoring

The key factors to monitor will include;

• Prices for staple commodities
• Informal cross-border food trade
• The impact of COVID-19 measures on food security
• Inflation and its impact on the Malawi Kwacha currency
• Rainfall patterns
• New government policy direction
• Possible increase of COVID-19 cases
• Fall Army Worm infestation impacts on irrigated crops
• Flooding in the southern districts