Approximately 2.09 million people are experiencing high levels of acute food insecurity (IPC Phase 3 or above) between April and September 2025, with 143,000 people experiencing Emergency levels (IPC Phase 4), characterised by large food gaps and high levels of acute malnutrition. The remaining 1.95 million people are experiencing IPC Phase 3 (Crisis) conditions.

The key drivers of the situation include climatic shocks—drought and irregular rainfall—in the southern and central areas of the country, as well as high food prices. In recent months, the northern part of the country has experienced a cessation of conflict and a degree of stabilisation, enabling the return of approximately 700,000 people. Despite this, more than 9,000 people remain internally displaced in Cabo Delgado. Displaced households and households in the process of returning to safe areas often face significant challenges, including limited access to agricultural production, livestock, and other forms of income generation. Their capacity to resume sustainable livelihoods remains severely constrained, leaving many entirely reliant on humanitarian food assistance. Meanwhile, sporadic attacks continue to occur in the districts of Macomia and Quissanga, where conflict continues to undermine security and recovery efforts.

The situation is expected to deteriorate in the projected period (October 2025 to March 2026), with 2.67 million people expected to face high levels of acute food insecurity, classified in IPC Phase 3 or above (Crisis or worse). This includes 170,000 people in Phase 4 and 2.5 million people in Phase 3. The anticipated deterioration is primarily due to the early exhaustion of household food reserves, particularly among families affected by irregular rainfall patterns. Agricultural projections have been disrupted by ongoing population movements—both returns and displacements driven by insecurity—which have further undermined production capacity. Compounding these challenges are seasonally elevated food prices and the continued effects of conflict and displacement in the northern regions, all of which contribute to heightened vulnerability and reduced food security.

• Increase the resilience of internally displaced persons with an emphasis on agricultural production while maintaining humanitarian food assistance.
• Increase access to safe water over the projected period due to forecasted normal-to-above-normal rainfall.
• Continue livelihood programs to reduce dependence on humanitarian food assistance.
• Provide agricultural and fishery inputs to the market.
• Intensify technical assistance to combat pests/diseases in agricultural crops and domestic animals.