Across much of Uganda, El Niño-induced dry spells led to extreme crop and pasture losses, which, alongside rising food prices, has greatly reduced food affordability and access. This is driving high levels of acute food insecurity and malnutrition in the Karamoja region and among vulnerable populations, including refugees and host communities, in other parts of the country. Low crop and livestock production, limited income, and high prices are reducing purchasing power and increasing households’ reliance on markets and external food assistance. Limited income opportunities and localised conflicts, particularly in Karamoja, also restrict food access. At the same time, reduced humanitarian assistance levels are diminishing vulnerable households’ capacity to cope with these conditions.

Two recent IPC analyses from August 2026 covered 60 areas across Uganda, including nine Karamoja districts,12 refugee-hosting districts, 13 refugee settlements, urban refugees in Kampala, and 25 additional districts.

In total, between July 2026–January 2027,* around 3.6 million people (17 percent of the analysed population) are experiencing IPC Phase 3 or above, a 6 percent increase from 2025. All Karamoja districts and 12 refugee settlements are classified in IPC Phase 3 (Crisis). In Karamoja from August–October 2026, about 673,000 people face IPC Phase 3 or above—the highest number recorded since 2018 and an increase of 200,000 people compared to the March 2026 analysis. In refugee settlements, over 642,000 people are in IPC Phase 3 or above, an 11 percent reduction from the previous analysis.

Conditions are anticipated to deteriorate during the February–June 2027** projection period, corresponding with the lean season. An estimated 4.4 million people (21 percent of the analysed population) are likely to face IPC Phase 3 or above, including 289,000 people in IPC Phase 4. This is nearly twice the projection for the same time period in 2025, reflecting the expanded geographical coverage of the analysis, the anticipated impacts of El Niño, depleted household food stocks, seasonal price increases, and declining Humanitarian Food Security Assistance.

*For Karamoja, the current period is August–October 2026. 
**For Karamoja, the projected period is November 2026–February 2027.

• Scale up targeted humanitarian assistance and social protection: Expand food, cash, and nutrition assistance for households facing AFI and AMN Phase 3 and Phase 4 outcomes, prioritising Karamoja, refugees, returnees, pregnant and breastfeeding women, children under five, elderly persons, and persons with disabilities to prevent widening food consumption gaps and worsening malnutrition.
• Support climate-resilient agricultural recovery: Provide farmers with drought- and flood-tolerant seeds, planting materials, tools, extension services, and weather advisories. Strengthen pest and disease monitoring and control to support agricultural recovery, improve food production, and enhance resilience to future climatic shocks.  
• Strengthen preparedness, resilience, and livelihood diversification: Invest in flood preparedness, early warning systems, contingency planning, irrigation, rangeland restoration, storage facilities, and diversified livelihood opportunities. These measures will reduce vulnerability to climatic shocks while improving household resilience, income generation, and long-term food security.   
• Protect and strengthen livestock livelihoods: Expand veterinary services, livestock vaccination campaigns, disease surveillance, treatment programmes, fodder support, and water access for livestock. Promoting resilient livestock production systems will protect household assets, strengthen incomes, and support food security among pastoral and agropastoral communities.  
• Enhance coordination, funding, and service delivery: Strengthen multisectoral coordination among government and partners, improve beneficiary targeting and data systems, and advocate for increased donor funding. Sustained investment in food security, nutrition, health, and social protection programmes is essential to address underlying vulnerabilities.