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IPC Indicative Analysis: A new exceptional IPC prototype protocol

DATE
Jul 2015
REGION - COUNTRY
Global

Based on countries' experience, the IPC Global Support Unit acknowledges the need for IPC Analyses in exceptional situations, when conditions of conflict, civil insecurity or limited humanitarian access prevent updates to country IPC analyses due to absence of reliable outcome evidence. Nevertheless, there are cases where a Country IPC Technical Working Group (IP TWG) may need to update past IPC analyses and make credible projections based on current contributing factor analysis. In this case and where the Country IPC TWG analysis goes through an IPC GSU-led Real Time Quality Review, the analysis may be considered and released as an Indicative IPC Analysis.

The objective of the IPC Indicative Analysis protocol is precisely to allow IPC classification in exceptional contexts, where conditions of conflict, civil insecurity or limited humanitarian access lead to the absence of reliable and up to date outcome evidence, which are necessary to conduct high quality IPC analyses.

This new protocol is under discussion and review for inclusion as an exceptional IPC protocol.

The first IPC Indicative Analysis was released in June 2015, when the IPC GSU successfully concluded an external Real-Time IPC Quality Review of the Current IPC Acute Food Insecurity Analysis in Yemen, which was conducted by the National IPC Technical Working Group (IPC TWG) from the 25th of May to the 2nd of June 2015. This support was requested by the Yemen IPC TWG, in light of indications of rising levels of acute food insecurity and the need to update the acute food insecurity overview in the country, based on high-quality analysis and technical consensus, in order to adequately inform response planning.

The results of the IPC Quality Review clearly showed that the Yemen IPC Acute Food Insecurity Phase Classification was mostly plausible, based on well-articulated analyses of trends and contributing factors to support the inference of the current situation, thus updating the IPC Analysis of February 2015. However, such analysis should be considered only as an Indicative IPC Analysis, because it is not substantiated by the minimum evidences required for a rigorous IPC analysis, mainly due to the lack of access to reliable and up to date outcome data.

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