Approximately 1.05 million people (21 percent of the analysed population) are experiencing high levels of acute food insecurity (IPC Phase 3 or above) between September 2026 and February 2027, including 52,000 people in Emergency (IPC Phase 4). 

Acute food insecurity affects all population groups across Lebanon, although the prevalence and severity vary considerably, with refugees and recently displaced Lebanese populations among the most affected. The situation is driven by the cumulative impacts of two consecutive conflicts in less than two years, compounded by a fragile economic environment and rising living costs. 

Conditions are expected to deteriorate between March and July 2027, when approximately 1.15 million people (24 percent of the analysed population) are projected to face Phase 3 or above, including 97,000 people likely to be in Phase 4.

• Sustain urgent food assistance and prevent a break in the response: Maintain HFSA through July 2027 and secure funding for June and July to address the projected increase in acute food insecurity, prioritising the most vulnerable and monitoring coverage, adequacy and transfer values.Where market conditions allow, prioritise cash-based assistance through existing delivery mechanisms to address constrained purchasing power and livelihoods, while supporting early recovery and avoiding parallel systems.
• Apply dynamic, population-specific targeting: Prioritise assistance based on IPC severity, vulnerability and displacement, balancing the large caseload among Lebanese residents with the higher prevalence and severity among refugees and recent arrivals.
• Adapt support to displacement, return and access dynamics: Maintain flexible assistance for displaced and returnee populations, ensuring support continues where access to housing, livelihoods and services remains constrained and can be rapidly adjusted to renewed displacement or access disruptions.
• Adapt transfer adequacy and delivery arrangements to purchasing power, markets and access: Regularly review transfer adequacy in line with living costs and purchasing power, and adjust delivery modalities to local market functionality and access constraints, particularly in El Nabatieh.
• Protect livelihoods and restore productive capacity based on assessed needs: Complement food assistance with livelihood support for conflict-affected, displaced and returning households, prioritising agricultural households and other vulnerable groups. Support should protect productive assets, sustain seasonal production and restore livelihoods where security and access permit.
• Strengthen complementary nutrition actions to address food insecurity and malnutrition risks: Improve access to diverse, nutrient-rich diets among vulnerable households, particularly young children and pregnant and breastfeeding women, while strengthening nutrition monitoring to identify and respond to emerging risks.