More than one-fifth of the analysed population in Pakistan is facing high levels of acute food insecurity due to the residual impacts of the 2025 monsoon floods, prolonged drought and dry spells, and localised insecurity. Approximately 7.5 million people (21 percent of the analysed population) are classified in IPC Phase 3 or above (Crisis or worse) between December 2025 and March 2026. This includes around 1.25 million people experiencing critical levels of acute food insecurity, IPC Phase 4 (Emergency), characterised by large food gaps and high levels of acute malnutrition. Another 6.3 million people in IPC Phase 3 (Crisis) are unable to meet their essential food requirements and forced to resort to unstainable coping measures. Immediate, life-saving assistance is needed to prevent a further deterioration and to prevent affected populations—particularly those in Phase 4—from facing catastrophic conditions.

Between April and September 2026, the number of people in Phase 3 or above is expected to slightly decrease to 6.7 million (19 percent of the analysed rural population), representing a reduction of about 855,000 people facing high levels of acute food insecurity. Across the analysed districts, about 570,000 people are expected to be in Phase 4, while approximately 6.12 million people will likely be in Phase 3. Compared to the same season of the previous year, when approximately 10 million people were classified in Phase 3 or above, the projected population appears lower. This should not be interpreted as an improvement in food security conditions. The apparent decline is largely driven by reduced geographic coverage, as the 2026 projection covers 45 districts, compared to 68 districts in the 2025 projection. When assessed proportionally, the share of the analysed population facing Crisis or worse conditions remains broadly similar, at around 19 percent in the current projection, compared to 20 percent in the previous year.

The IPC acute food insecurity analysis in Pakistan covers 45 vulnerable rural districts in Balochistan, Sindh, and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. These areas face widespread food insecurity, malnutrition, and poverty. Together, they are home to an estimated 35.6 million people—about 23 percent of the country’s rural population and 14 percent of its total population. 

Recommendations to improve availability:

• With 21 percent of the population classified in Phase 3 or above, ensuring improved access to sufficient and nutritious food through appropriate delivery modalities is critical. This can be achieved by scaling up cash and voucher assistance alongside targeted in-kind food distributions. These interventions should aim to reduce food consumption gaps and save the lives of populations facing high levels of acute food insecurity.
• Ensure timely provision of quality seeds for high-yield crops, fodder, and vegetables, along with essential toolkits, prioritising subsistence farmers, including women.
• Introduce modern agricultural techniques to enhance productivity and resilience. Complement these inputs with training on climate-smart practices for crop and fodder production. Implement these interventions through conditional food or cash assistance programs, prioritising households experiencing worsening socio-economic conditions to strengthen coping capacities and promote long-term livelihoods.
• Scale up livestock protection and management measures, such as vaccination and deworming campaigns, to prevent disease outbreaks and safeguard livelihoods.
• Strengthen programs on risk reduction, preparedness, and climate adaptation to mitigate the impacts of floods, droughts, and other hazards.
• Support improved market access to livestock markets to facilitate trade between livestock traders and consumers.

Recommendations to address access issues

• Strengthen market access to help small-scale farmers boost earnings and diversify business opportunities.
• Promote the use of digital platforms and mobile applications for real-time price information, e-commerce, and direct-to consumer sales. Provide training on quality standards, packaging, and value addition to enable farmers to tap into higher-value markets and improve competitiveness.
• Protect and restore livelihoods for families affected by natural disasters (floods, droughts, and heatwaves), price shocks, conflicts, and border closures by initiating income-generating and employment-creation interventions.
• Promote livelihood diversification within the most vulnerable areas through skills development programs aligned with market demand to create sustainable income opportunities.
• Scale up vocational training in various trades within the most vulnerable areas, prioritising households and women facing acute food insecurity, high poverty levels, and worsening socio-economic conditions.
• To improve financial access for vulnerable households, small businesses, and those affected by border closures by providing affordable low-interest microcredit schemes to diversify livelihoods and enhance economic resilience. Prioritise smallholder farmers, women-led low-income households, and families impacted by trade disruptions due to various shocks.

Recommendations to address stabilisation/utilisation issues:

• Strengthen asset creation initiatives to mitigate climate-related hazards that threaten food security for populations in IPC Phase 2 or above.
• To reduce vulnerability and strengthen resilience, scale up disaster preparedness measures in districts prone to recurring climate shocks to reduce impact of future shocks.
• Construct and rehabilitate water infrastructure such as tube wells, irrigation channels, and reservoirs to enhance water conservation.
• Develop resilient water systems to mitigate the impacts of recurring floods and droughts, ensuring sustainable access to water for farming communities.

Use IPC data/analysis findings:

• Use findings from the IPC data/analysis to inform targeting and prioritisation, including government-led social safety net programmes.