Nearly 1.88 million children are now expected to require treatment for acute malnutrition in Somalia in 2026—42,000 more than previously projected. Burhakaba District has reached IPC AMN Phase 5 (Extremely Critical) and faces a risk of Famine under a plausible worst-case scenario. 

The updated analysis of the  April–June 2026 projection period shows that both food security and nutrition outcomes are worse than initially predicted.  The deterioration is driven by poor Gu rainfall, sharp food price spikes linked to the 2026 Middle East conflict, currency depreciation and conflict-related displacement.   

A rapid and sustained scale‑up of multisectoral assistance—particularly in hotspot areas such as Burhakaba—is urgently needed to prevent further deterioration and loss of life.  

April-June 2026 (Immediate):

• Strengthen high-level advocacy to ensure the immediate mobilisation of adequate resources to meet critical needs in priority areas.
• Life saving multi-sectoral humanitarian assistance (food security, nutrition, health, and WASH) must be urgently scaled up and sustained for populations classified in IPC Phase 3 or above, including those facing a risk of Famine.
• Prioritise scaling up of humanitarian assistance in hotspot areas where both acute food insecurity and malnutrition are classified in IPC Phase 3 or above.
• Scale up humanitarian assistance in underserved and hard-to-reach rural areas.
• Ensure adequate funding for follow-up assessment and risk monitoring – nationally as well as in priority hotspot areas, including Burhakaba District. This includes cross-sectional joint assessment.

April-December 2026:

• Enhance humanitarian assistance efficiency to reach the highest number of people within the shortest time in areas of high concern.
• Enhance anticipatory action in preparation for forecasted floods stemming from the emerging El Niño.