Between April and July 2026, an estimated 2.6 million people in Ecuador are expected to face high levels of acute food insecurity (IPC Phase 3 or above), representing a slight deterioration compared with the December 2025 to March 2026 period. Of this total, approximately 2.5 million people are projected to be facing Crisis (IPC Phase 3) conditions and around 95,000 people are expected to be facing Emergency (IPC Phase 4) conditions, requiring urgent assistance. The analysis includes both the resident population and migrant population (of Venezuelan nationality), who face higher levels of vulnerability.

For the August–November 2026 period (second projected period), the severity of acute food insecurity is expected to remain at similar levels, with 2.6 million people projected to be in IPC Phase 3 or above (Crisis or Emergency). The provinces of Esmeraldas and Pastaza are expected to remain classified in Phase 3 (Crisis), while the rest of the country would remain in Phase 2 (Stressed), including Guayas Province, which is expected to show a slight seasonal improvement by moving from Phase 3 to Phase 2.

Around 95,000 people projected to be in Phase 4 (Emergency) are expected to remain in this situation throughout the analysed periods and will continue to require urgent assistance through targeted interventions to save lives, reduce food consumption gaps, and protect or restore livelihoods.

The acute food insecurity situation in Ecuador is driven by a combination of factors, including high food prices, unstable incomes, climate shocks, violence, and insecurity. These challenges are compounded by agricultural risks, such as Fusarium Race 4, which affects banana production and household incomes in rural areas, as well as among migrant populations.

• Strengthen and expand social protection programmes, cash transfers and food assistance in a continuous and timely manner, prioritising households in IPC Phase 3 or above and the migrant population.
• Implement preventive measures targeting households in IPC Phase 2 (Stressed) to prevent deterioration, particularly in contexts of economic pressure.
• Protect and strengthen livelihoods and income-generating capacities of rural households, small-scale producers, informal workers and other vulnerable populations, promoting economic resilience and preventing the loss of productive assets.
• Reinforce water, sanitation and hygiene (WASH) interventions and health surveillance in provinces with limited access to safe water and a high incidence of diseases, particularly to protect households with children under five years of age.
• Maintain a differentiated territorial approach to climate-related risks by strengthening preparedness and response measures in highly vulnerable provinces to protect livelihoods, ensure market access, and maintain the continuity of services and support for affected households.