Afghanistan continues to experience marginal improvement in the food security situation since 2021, despite facing a series of significant challenges over the past few years. These include the political transition in August 2021, impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic, and multiple natural disasters like floods, earthquakes, and droughts. Additionally, the country is managing the influx of Afghan returnees from neighbouring regions, all of which continue to strain resources and impact food security.

In the current period (September to October 2024), an estimated 11.6 million people (25 percent of the total population) are experiencing high levels of acute food insecurity, classified in IPC Phase 3 or above (Crisis or worse). Of these, about 1.8 million people (4 percent of the total population) are in IPC Phase 4 (Emergency) and around 9.8 million people (21 percent of the total population) are in IPC Phase 3 (Crisis). This slight improvement in the food security situation can be attributed to improved agricultural production, the scale of humanitarian food and emergency agricultural assistance in 2023/2024 and improved household purchasing power.

Despite improvements compared to previous analyses, the projection period (November 2024 to March 2025), which coincides with the peak of the lean season, will see14.8 million people (32 percent of the total population) classified in IPC Phase 3 or above (Crisis or worse). This includes 3.1 million people (7 percent of the total population) classified in Phase 4 and 11.6 million (25 percent of the total population) in Phase 3. 

Nearly 3.5 million children, aged 6 to 59 months, are suffering or projected to suffer acute malnutrition between June 2024 and May 2025 and require urgent interventions. This includes 867,300 cases of severe acute malnutrition (SAM) and almost 2.6 million cases of moderate acute malnutrition (MAM). Additionally, 1.2 million pregnant and breastfeeding women (PBW) are expected to suffer acute malnutrition in the same period. 

Sustained humanitarian food assistance: With food gaps expected to increase during the winter/lean season, it is crucial to scale-up humanitarian food assistance for people in Phase 3 or above. This is essential to prevent them from descending into more severe levels of food insecurity.

Crop pests and disease monitoring: Maintain monitoring and control measures for crop pests and diseases to prevent losses in agricultural production.

Partner lifesaving and resilience activities: considering the population’s limited resilience and susceptibility to shocks, it is essential to bridge the gap between immediate, lifesaving humanitarian assistance and longer-term basic needs support. This partnership will help address the underlying causes of food insecurity and bolster the resilience and livelihoods of the affected communities.

Integrated programming: With the deteriorated food security situation, implementation of collaborative integrated programs in partnership with other key clusters like Nutrition, Protection, Health, and Water, Sanitation and Hygiene (WASH) will be critical. These initiatives should focus on disrupting the cycle of food insecurity, especially targeting populations in Phase 3 or above to mitigate malnutrition and protection risks.

Gender sensitive action: Implementing food assistance and emergency agriculture initiatives and activities that are sensitive to gender considerations, specifically tailored to support households led by women, as well as women and children who encounter obstacles in accessing food and incomes, are critical. These segments of the population are frequently marginalized in society and necessitate focused assistance.

Advocacy and resource mobilization: In the current funding crisis which already hampers critical activities to improve food security, high-level advocacy and resource mobilization must be prioritized. Ensuring the continuous provision of humanitarian aid for the most food-insecure communities and activities to help communities grow their own food.