Between January and May 2023, 3.2 million people (one third of the population) are in IPC Phase 3 or above (Crisis and Emergency). A total of 781,000 people are in IPC Phase 4 (Emergency), and 2. 5 million people in IPC Phase 3 (Crisis). This represents a 23 percent reduction in the number of people in IPC Phase 3 or above compared to the October - December 2022 period, and a 13 percent drop compared to January - May 2022.

Despite reported improvements in the current period, Yemen remains one of the most food insecure countries in the world and the positive developments should be viewed as a temporary reprieve as the situation is projected to worsen between June and December 2023. The number of people in IPC Phase 3 or above is forecasted to increase by 20 percent (638,500 additional people), reaching 3.9 million (41 percent of the population). Of these, about 2.8 million people are estimated to be in IPC Phase 3 and 1.1 million people in IPC Phase 4. In total, 117 of the 118 districts will be in IPC Phase 3 or above (16 districts in IPC Phase 4 and 101 districts in IPC Phase 3). Thirteen districts are expected to shift from IPC Phase 3 to Phase 4, while 15 districts shift from IPC Phase 2 (Stress) to Phase 3.

This IPC analysis covers 118 districts and areas under the control of the Government of Yemen, for which new food security and nutrition evidence was available. The results show a reduction in the level of food insecurity compared to 2022, however, the number of people facing severe acute food insecurity remains very high and of great concern in majority of the analysed districts. The main drivers of the deterioration include, a projected 20 percent shortfall in humanitarian assistance, anticipated increase in food and fuel prices to about 30 percent above the average levels, and continuation of conflict in frontline districts.

Peace solution: Being the key driver of food insecurity and malnutrition, an end to the conflict is a prerequisite for durable solutions. Ongoing efforts to broker a peace agreement should be sustained. The warring factions should cease fighting to protect lives and livelihoods. There is an urgent need to guarantee uninterrupted flow of humanitarian assistance and commercial imports from the ports to all parts of the country to lower transaction costs along the marketing corridors and stabilize prices. Ending the war in Yemen is critical to more long-term development goals by both state and non-state actors in the country.

Continued provision of the critical humanitarian assistance: To sustain the temporary gains realized in reduced food insecurity levels, there is an urgent need to provide resources to enable sourcing and delivery of critical life-saving food assistance to populations facing large food consumption gaps. Scaling down humanitarian assistance levels will lead to food security deteriorating, as depicted in the IPC projection analysis.

Livelihood support: The protracted nature of the crisis has led to exhaustion of assets and livelihood coping options, limiting people’s resilience, and increased their exposure and vulnerability to shocks. Close collaboration between humanitarian and development actors is needed to support diverse livelihood-based interventions that enhance the population’s resilience to shocks. Sufficient investment in livelihood and resilience building programs is, therefore, necessary. 

Implementation of fiscal and monetary policies: The government with support of multilateral donors to proceed with implementation of various fiscal and monetary policies that will help stabilize the Yemeni rial (YER) and ease pressure on foreign currency demands to finance imports. More stability in the local currency will have spill-over effects on the prices of essential food and non-food commodities and ease headline inflationary pressure, ultimately boosting affordability of food for vulnerable Yemenis.