In Karamoja and Teso sub-regions and in the analysed refugee hosting districts, consecutive poor and below-average seasonal food harvests and livestock production, coupled with sharp increases in prices of food and essential non-food commodities, caused widespread food insecurity. Seasonal crop pests and diseases as well as endemic livestock vectors and diseases (and conflict in Karamoja and Teso) also contributed.

In total, between June and August 2022, around 1.8 million people (24% of the population analysed) in these areas experienced high levels of acute food insecurity (IPC Phase 3 or above), including over 250,000 people in Emergency (IPC Phase 4). In Teso, levels were particularly high, with 30% of the population (625,000 people) in IPC Phase 3 or above, and all districts classified in IPC Phase 3 (Crisis), with Bukedea and Kaberamaido facing the highest levels of acute food insecurity. At the time of the assessment in July 2022, about 83% of the households were employing crisis and emergency livelihood coping strategies. In Karamoja, 25% of the population (315,000 people) were in IPC Phase 3 or above, with five of the nine districts of the sub-region classified in IPC Phase 3 and the rest in IPC Phase 2 (Stressed). In the refugee hosting districts, 21% of the population (857,000 people) were in IPC Phase 3 or above, with nine of the 12 districts analysed classified in IPC Phase 3 and the rest in IPC Phase 2. At the time of the analysis, a sizeable proportion of households in IPC Phase 3 or above were facing widening food consumption gaps and employing atypicalcrisis and emergency coping strategies.

During the projection period (September 2022 – January 2023), the overall situation is expected to improve. The total population facing high acute food insecurity is expected to reduce to 1.1 million (15% of the analysed population). In Karamoja, levels of acute food insecurty are expected to remain the same, with some districts likely having some reductions (Napak and Nabilatuk). In Teso, the number of people in IPC Phase 3 or above will likely halve, with three districts improving to IPC Phase 2. In the refugee hosting districts, the number of people in Phase 3 or above will also likely almost halve, and some districts improving to IPC Phase 2.