The recent IPC analysis, conducted at the end of April 2015 in Nimule, indicates a further deterioration in the number of people facing severe food insecurity from 2.5 million people in January - March 2015 to around 4.6 million people during the lean period of May - July 2015.

An estimated 3.8 million people are classified as severely food insecure in April (3 million in Crisis and 800,000 in Emergency) and are unable to meet their food needs. The majority of these populations are located in the three conflict affected states of the Greater Upper Nile region and most parts of the Greater Bahr el Ghazal. As the lean season progresses, in May to July 2015, the situation will deteriorate even further to an estimated 4.6 million people classified severely food insecure (3.6 million in Crisis and 1 million in Emergency). However, the Greater Equatoria region remains generally food secure as households still have some stocks from own production.

Additionally, it is estimated that a further 4 million people will be in Stress (Phase 2) by end of April and cannot adequately sustain their livelihoods without engaging in negative coping. At the peak of this lean season (July), these populations will have depleted their stocks and the further loss of assets in efforts to access food will increase their vulnerability to Crisis level. A projected estimate of 3.2 million people will still remaining in Stress by the end of the lean season, requiring assistance.

Compared to May in most previous years, the lean season started two months earlier due to diminished household food stocks, high food prices and long-term effects of the conflict.

This analysis does not capture the on-going insecurity developments in Unity and Upper Nile. The IPC Technical Working Group (TWG) will update the analysis in early July, or sooner if the situation allows, to incorporate the impacts of the recent conflict on food security of the communities, depending on information availability.

Population estimates for April 2015

Population estimates for the May-July 2015 Projection

Population estimates for the August-September 2015 Projection

The IPC Technical Working Group did not release any specific recommendations for action in this Communication Summary.