Key Messages: 

Deterioration of the food security situation following recrudescence of the conflict since December 2013.

Livelihood change, particularly livestock and food production are affected by the crisis.

Humanitarian assistance is key to support the most vulnerable households towards the lean season, that in 2015 is expected to start in March, earlier than usual.

The most affected areas are: One prefecture (Ouham) and 10 sub-prefectures (Bimbo, Boda, Berberati, Bocaranga, Ngaoundaye, Sibut, Dékoa, Mala, Kaga-Bandoro, Obo) have been classified in Phase 4, Emergency. Phase 3 (Crisis) exists in 11 prefectures: Kémo, Nana-Gribizi, Ombella-M’Poko, Mambéré-Kadéi, Ouham-Péndé, Nana-Mambéré, Ouaka, Basse-Kotto, Haute-Kotto, Mbomou and Haut-Mbomou. 

The present report is the product of the 9th Cycle of IPC Analysis conducted from the 28th to 31st October 2014. This analysis shows that 32% of the rural population and 25% of the Bangui population is in humanitarian phase (IPC Phase 3: crisis and IPC Phase 4: emergency) and that an immediate response is necessary. Conducted during the harvest season, the present analysis has shown an improvement compared with the previous analysis conducted in April 2014 (lean season) and deterioration compared with the same period the previous year, as a consequence of the cumulative effect of the crisis on livelihoods and food consumption. In detail, IPC TWG has thus estimated that 1.5 million people are in humanitarian phase, of which 1.3 million from the rural areas and about 0.2 million in the neighborhoods of the city of Bangui most affected by the crisis. 

The main driving factors of food insecurity in the country are:

• loss of livelihoods
• destruction of the social structure
• 412902 displaced persons in October 2014
• 67-77% drop in livestock due to looting and rustling operated by armed gangs

The TWG recommends the food security cluster to do a periodic up-to-date of the data through a multi-sectorial monitoring, sharing of information among the NGOs cluster members, follow-up of the data through humanitarian interventions. Recommendations for the TWG in preparation for the next analysis:

1. capitalize on the members trained to constitute a hard-core competent and stable IPC group (certification IPC level 1 and 2)
2. include more participants from the regions once the security situation permits
3. discuss with the humanitarian coordination group prior to determine the next date for the IPC cycle according to data availability and analysis needed.