Out of the 13 livelihoods in Tajikistan analyzed in September - December 2012, about 870,277 people in 12 livelihood zones were classified in Phase 3- Crisis. Another 2,381,754 people were classified in Phase 2 - Stressed and 2,055,402 in Phase 1- Minimal.

In general, the food security status of analyzed zones has relatively improved in the reporting months compared to the previous year thanks to increased remittances received, good rainfall and good cereal production reaching 1.2 million tons, by end 2012, 12% higher than in the previous season. The availability of water and pasture has also increased in some parts of the country, leading to an improvement in livestock productivity and value. Remittances also played a major role in the livelihoods of many households and became the main source of income to meet their daily basic needs. The inflow of remittances in 2012 peaked at more than 3.5 billion USD, surpassing the 2011 record of 3.0 billion USD and accounting for almost half of the country’s GDP.

Despite the factors cited above that led to recovery from last year’s prolonged and extreme cold weather, the food insecure are not able to benefit from the overall improvement of the situation due to low purchasing capacity, fewer harvest and low livestock asset holding. 

The main factors driving acute food insecurity in some areas of Tajikistan, despite the improvement of the overall situation, are:

• high food and fuel prices
• lack of drinking and irrigation water in many areas
• unavailability of high cost of fertilizers
• animal diseases
• precarious household health environment
• poor feeding practices
• limitation in power supply
• high costs of coal and firewood

Higher wheat prices fuelled by the 2012 below normal harvest in Kazakhstan and high fuel prices further exacerbated the escalating situation, making the access difficult to the poorest of households who rely on the market for their larger proportion of food needs during lean period. Rural households with depleted food reserves and inadequate food consumption (quantity and quality), without any source of income other than remittances and those residing in remote areas with difficult access to markets are extremely vulnerable during this time. 
The urban poor who have limited sources of income are also suffering for their basic needs due to poor purchasing power. 

The following are recommendations made IPC TWGs on the next steps:

• Maintaining of consistent and regular monitoring of the food security situation around the country, particularly in Jamoat and district levels with particular attention to indicators that measure economic access to food and malnutrition.
• Leading role of the Ministry of Agriculture (MOA) on taking over and further implementation of the full process sustained and encouraged.
• Provide training on food security, IPC process, monitoring and Evaluation of the situation and analysis of data for the IPC TWGs, especially for the new members, to enable analysts with the necessary skills and knowledge to produce more relevant, credible and accessible food security information products to support decision-making.
• Travel visits for the Groups to other locations to participate in consultations and share the knowledge and technical experience.
• Continue the dialogue with partners from UN, International and National Organizations, Government on sustainability of the IPC process and future implementation.
• Assessment of country analytical tools to capture population needs and to inform the priorities. Set up of real time monitoring evaluation system with partners;
• Better communication of IPC results amongst partners, forum members and regional and district authorities.