More than 256,000 people (25 percent of the population) are experiencing IPC Phase 3 or above (Crisis or worse) between July and December 2026, including around 30,000 people in IPC Phase 4 (Emergency). This is a significant increase from the previous period (May – June 2026), when approximately 166,000 people (16 percent of the analysed population) faced Phase 3 or above and 17,000 people (2 percent) faced Phase 4. Price shocks linked to import dependence, low purchasing power, and the effects of strong El Niño conditions are driving the increase.

All areas that were classified in IPC Phase 2 (Stressed) between May and June have deteriorated to Phase 3 while rural Tadjourah and rural Obock have deteriorated to Phase 4, with half of their populations in Phase 3 or above.

Refugees—living in the Ali Addeh and Holl-Holl camps—represent the most affected population group in terms of prevalence, with nearly 70 percent of their population (over 21,000 people) classified in Phase 3 or above, mainly in the Ali Addeh and Holl-Holl camps, where households remain largely dependent on food assistance.

In areas classified in IPC Phase 3 or above, urgent interventions are needed to risk further deterioration, which is being exacerbated by El Niño conditions, rising fuel prices, and the blockage of the Strait of Hormuz.

• Trigger anticipatory emergency responses to save lives, reduce food consumption gaps, and protect the livelihoods of households in IPC Phase 3 or above, including those in refugee camps.
• Expand food distributions and cash transfers to the poorest households, including those in Djibouti City (Balbala and Boulaos), which are projected to shift into IPC Phase 3 in 2026 and which have so far received limited assistance.
• Protect agropastoral livelihoods against El Niño–related drought: support livestock (animal health, feed, watering) and fishing activities, prioritising Obock, Dikhil, and Tadjourah.
• Scale up nutrition awareness and training activities to increase consumption of diverse foods and promote good cooking practices in urban and rural areas and in refugee camps.