The latest projection update of Sudan reveals that intense conflict and organized violence, coupled with the continued economic decline, have driven approximately 17.7 million people across Sudan (37 percent of the analysed population) into high levels of acute food insecurity, classified in IPC Phase 3 or above (Crisis or worse) between October 2023 and February 2024. Of those, about 4.9 million (10 percent of the population analysed) are in IPC Phase 4 (Emergency), and almost 12.8 million people (27 percent of the population analysed) are in IPC Phase 3 (Crisis).

An update of the October 2023 – February 2024 projection period was carried out in October 2023 to allow for the revision of classifications of several states as the monitoring of key drivers and assumptions of the last projection analysis (July 2023) showed several changes in the assumptions used for the projected period. 

Conflict between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) and other organized violence continues to be the main drivers of life-threatening food insecurity in Sudan. The most acutely food insecure populations are in states affected by high levels of organized violence, including Greater Darfur, Greater Kordofan and Khartoum – especially the tri-city area of Khartoum, Bahri and Omdurman. Across all areas heavily affected by conflict and organized violence, civilians experiencing movement restrictions, including due to sieges, are at heightened risk of high levels of food insecurity. 

Access to people in need is one of the greatest challenges facing humanitarian partners and stakeholders. The conflict dynamics have become increasingly complex, making it challenging for humanitarian partners to deliver lifesaving and life-sustaining assistance to people trapped in conflict hotspots, including Khartoum, the Kordofans, and the Darfur states.

Lifesaving humanitarian assistance: 

• Provision of life-saving food or cash assistance to populations facing crisis and emergency levels of food insecurity, including residents, newly displaced and protracted IDPs and refugees. 
• Provision of of critical non-food assistance to populations facing crisis and emergency levels of food insecurity, including residents, newly displaced and protracted IDPs and refugees.
• Provision of cash and voucher assistance in areas where markets and supply chains are functioning to improve access to cash which remains at low availability, thereby improving market access.

Food production, resilience building and livelihood support: 

• Provide essential life-sustaining agricultural livelihood support, including a broad range of agriculture and livelihoodrestoring and safeguarding support packages to vulnerable people according to the seasonal calendar of interventions.
• Create sustainable and stable livelihood opportunities, particularly for the most vulnerable groups such as women, through schemes that promote the creation, building or rehabilitation of assets that improve long-term food security and resilience.
• Improve agricultural production and productivity by supporting the availability of financial services (through the Agricultural Bank of Sudan) and agricultural inputs (such as training, tools, seeds, fertilizers etc.) to small scale producers which will promote productivity, generate new employment as well as strengthen food availability and help mitigate the impact of below average harvests.

Food security, nutrition and livelihood data and information: 

• Ensure food security, nutrition and livelihood data is collected at the household level in as many localities as possible, including accessible and access-constrained states, either through face-to-face or remote data collection modalities.
• Produce and disseminate timely, credible, and accurate food security, nutrition, and agricultural livelihoods evidence for informed decision-making and action by a wide range of actors, stakeholders, and partners.
• Strengthen vertical and horizontal coordination among food security, nutrition, and livelihoods partners, stakeholders, and actors at locality, state, and national levels.