Ethiopia: Acute Food Insecurity Situation: October - December 2020 and Projections for January - June 2021 and July - September 2021
01.10.2020 > 30.09.2021


& next steps



In the analysis period of October to December 2020, about 8.6 million people (16% of the analysed population) are facing high levels of acute food insecurity (IPC Phase 3 or above) despite ongoing Humanitarian Food Assistance (HFA). Of these, about 7.2 million people are classified in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) and about 1.4 million people in Emergency (IPC Phase 4). During the January to July 2021 (first projection) period, an estimated 12.9 million people are expected to be facing high levels of acute food insecurity (IPC Phase 3 or above) in the presence of currently planned and funded humanitarian response interventions. In the second projection period (between July and September 2021) about 4 million people are expected to be in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) or worse in Meher areas only, given the limited confirmed Humanitarian Food Assistance (HFA).

Key Drivers:

  • Economic decline: Significant macroeconomic challenges still prevail in the country, resulting in high inflation rates exacerbated by COVID-19 prevention measures.
  • COVID-19 measures: Lockdowns and other measures put in place to prevent the spread of COVID-19 had a negative impact on food availability and acces: mainly food prices, income and food expenditure, as well as a decline in remittances and employment opportunities.
  • Desert Locusts continue to pose a serious risk of damage to both pasture and crops. By October 2020, 205 woredas saw both Belg and Meher 2020 crops affected.
  • Displacement: Around 1.2 million people have been displaced due to conflict. More displaced people are expected during the analysis period due to the recent conflict in Tigray. Severe flash floods have caused significant population displacement (154,000 people) and damage to property, infrastructure, farmland, and crops.  

This IPC analysis was done prior to the events in Tigray in November 2020. Therefore, the classification provided here needs to be updated as soon as data becomes available. 

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