Despite the positive impact of the 2023 Gu rains and sustained humanitarian assistance, the levels of acute food insecurity are projected to remain high. Between October to December 2023, 4.3 million people are expected to face Crisis (IPC Phase 3) or worse outcomes. This includes over 1 million people who will likely be in Emergency (IPC Phase 4). The increase in the number of people facing Crisis (IPC Phase 3) or worse outcomes from 3.7 million between August to September 2023 to 4.3 million between October to December 2023 is due to a combination of factors, including the adverse impacts of El-Nino related heavy rains and flooding and anticipated decline in the level of humanitarian assistance in the coming months because of funding constraints.

While food security outcomes in several pastoral livelihoods will improve: Coastal Deeh Pastoral and Fishing of central regions; Guban Pastoral, Hawd Pastoral of northwest, northeast and central; Southern Inland Pastoral of Middle Juba and Lower Juba, Northern Inland Pastoral of northwest and northeast; East Golis Pastoral of northwest and northeast; Coastal Deeh Pastoral and Fishing of northeast and Middle Shabelle will remain in Crisis (IPC Phase 3). The number of Internally Displaced Persons (IDPs) across Somalia is currently estimated at 3.7 million (OCHA). In the context of reduced humanitarian assistance most of the main IDP settlements analysed will remain in Crisis (IPC Phase 3).

Acute malnutrition analysis findings show that approximately 1.5 million children aged 6 to 59 months under the age of five years face acute malnutrition between August 2023 and July 2024, including 330,630 who are likely to be severely malnourished. Of the 46 population groups included in analysis, a Critical situation (IPC AMN Phase 4) was observed in thirteen population groups. The situation has generally improved compared to the same season in 2022.

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