Six million people in Somalia - 31 percent of the analysed population - are facing high levels of acute food insecurity (IPC Phase 3 or above) between April and June 2026, including 1.9 million in Emergency (IPC Phase 4). This marks an increase of more than half a million people compared to the initial projection and reflects a rapidly worsening situation. 

In this analysis of the updated April–June 2026 projection period, it was found that both food security and nutrition outcomes are worse than initially forecasted in the analysis published in February 2026. The deterioration is driven by poor Gu rainfall, sharp food price spikes linked to the 2026 conflict in the Middle East, depreciation of the Somali Shilling in the south, conflict‑related displacement and rising flood risks.

Nearly 1.88 million children are now expected to require treatment for acute malnutrition in 2026—42,000 more than previously projected. Burhakaba District has reached IPC AMN Phase 5 (Extremely Critical) and faces a risk of Famine under a plausible worst‑case scenario.

Humanitarian assistance remains a lifeline but is far from sufficient, reaching only 12 percent of people in Phase 3 or above. A rapid and sustained scale‑up of multisectoral assistance—particularly in hotspot areas such as Burhakaba—is urgently needed to prevent further deterioration and loss of life.