According to the latest projection update, around 1.26 million people (23 percent of the analysed population) are expected to face high levels of acute food insecurity (IPC Phase 3 or above) between April and September 2024. This includes 85,000 people (2 percent of the analysed population) in IPC Phase 4 (Emergency) and 1.18 million people (21 percent of the analysed population) in IPC Phase 3 (Crisis).

The analysed population includes Lebanese, Syrian refugees, Palestine Refugees in Lebanon (PRL) and Palestine Refugees from Syria (PRS). Among the 1.26 million people expected to be in IPC Phase 3 or above between April and September 2024, 683,000 are Lebanese residents (18 percent of the resident population), 510,000 are Syrian refugees (34 percent of the Syrians refugees in Lebanon), 55,000 are PRL (31 percent of the PRL population in Lebanon), and 13,600 are PRS (45 percent of the PRS population in Lebanon). Populations classified in IPC Phase 3 or above require urgent humanitarian action to reduce food gaps, protect and restore livelihoods and prevent acute malnutrition.

The projection period is characterized by the continuation of the conflict along Lebanon’s southern border and protracted internal displacement, a fragile economy and rising inflation as well as additional cuts to humanitarian food assistance (HFA) and increasing tensions between the different population groups living in the country.

 Situation monitoring: This report assumed the “most likely scenario” of no full-scale war to materialize in Lebanon, as a result of the ongoing conflict in the southern regions of the country since October 2023. However, continuous monitoring of the situation remains of the utmost importance. It will also be important to monitor the impact of the escalating hostilities on the food security and agricultural livelihoods of the affected farmers in Lebanon and gain deeper understanding into the challenges they faced within the conflict areas, specifically in South and Nabatiyeh governorates. In addition, this update for the projection period analysis assumed a certain level of economic stagnation, similar to what the country has witnessed over the past six months. Economic shocks that have the potential to exacerbate the economic situation in the country will need to be closely monitored.

Lifesaving and Humanitarian Food Assistance: Urgent action continues to be required to save lives and reduce food consumption gaps of populations categorized as being in Emergency and Crisis (IPC Phases 4 and 3) by improving access to food through appropriate modalities. The recently announced additional cuts to HFA to Syrian refugees, along with the lack of visibility on funding of the different social assistance programs to Lebanese, along with the decrease in the provided TVs, are likely to have detrimental effects on the lives and wellbeing of affected populations but will take time to fully materialize. As the different vulnerable population groups start to deplete their coping mechanisms to face these cuts and secure their essential needs, this has the possibility of having long lasting effects on health and education levels of an entire generation, especially among refugees populations. This would in turn impact their longer-term ability to find employment and livelihoods sources for themselves and their families, eventually leading to a comparatively higher financial burden on host populations and supporting countries. As such, as people continue to exhaust their remaining coping strategies, the full detrimental effects of these ongoing cuts are expected to further exacerbate in the medium to long term outlook. 

The conflict has led to significant internal displacement as well as to the loss of livelihoods. To date, FSAS partners have provided food assistance to conflict-affected people across the country, including around 20,500 families, in addition to a one-time off cash-based food assistance to 30 thousand families, and the provision of school meals to around 13,500 students, on top of its regular activities. Sustaining this assistance remains crucial considering increasing needs amidst the volatility of the situation along with the need to respond in a timely and urgent manner to affected people while contributing to overall data assurance, accountability and system strengthening as part of advanced preparedness measures. 

Although an exact approximation of the impact of assistance cannot be made through this analysis, it has been assumed that some portion of households classified in IPC Phase 2 (Stressed) are also vulnerable and are not classified in more severe phases because of the level of assistance that was previously delivered. Therefore, it is crucial to monitor the situation and implement activities that help mitigate the potential negative impact on their livelihoods and continue assisting those households to prevent them from moving to higher food insecurity phases. 

As such, it remains crucial that the value of humanitarian cash-based food assistance, which was recently reduced for both Lebanese and Syrian refugees, is set based on needs and gaps. An alignment between the transfer value of cash for food and multi-purpose cash assistance with the market-based Minimum Expenditure Basket (MEB) and household economic capacity values is crucial, while regularly updating the assistance provided to all populations based on the monitoring of risk factors and contextual development, can help ensure that food insecurity levels are properly tackled.