The ongoing economic crisis continues to affect Lebanon’s food security situation. This crisis has particularly affected a vulnerable population that includes Lebanese residents, Syrian refugees, Palestine refugees in Lebanon (PRL) and Palestine refugees from Syria (PRS).

In the current period, between October 2023 and March 2024, about 1.05 million Lebanese, Syrian refugees, PRL and PRS are facing acute food insecurity and are classified in IPC Phase 3 or above (Crisis or worse), corresponding to 19 percent of the analysed population. About 74,000 people (1 percent of the population analysed) are in IPC Phase 4 (Emergency) and 976,000 people (18 percent of the population analysed) are in IPC Phase 3 (Crisis). About 582,000 Lebanese residents (15 percent of the resident population), 411,000 Syrian refugees (27 percent of the total Syrians in Lebanon), 46,000 PRL (26 percent of the PRL in Lebanon) and 10,600 PRS (35 percent of the PRS in Lebanon) are estimated to be in IPC Phase 3 or above between October 2023 and March 2024.

The situation is expected to deteriorate in the projected period. Between April and September 2024, about 1.14 million people are expected to face high levels of food insecurity and are likely to be in IPC Phase 3 or above, corresponding to 21 percent of the analysed population. A total of 64,000 individuals (1 percent of the population analysed) are expected to face severe food insecurity and are classified in IPC Phase 4 (Emergency), and 1.08 million (19 percent of the population analysed) are expected to be in IPC Phase 3 (Crisis). Specifically, a total of 582,000 Lebanese resident (15 percent of the resident population), 500,000 Syrian refugees (33 percent of the total Syrians in Lebanon), 49,000 PRL (27 percent of the PRL in Lebanon) and 12,100 PRS (40 percent of the PRS in Lebanon) are estimated to be in Phase 3 or above between April and September 2024.

Lebanon continues to face an economic and financial crisis that has undermined the food security of Lebanese residents and of Syrian and Palestine refugees. Rising inflation continues to be one of the main drivers of food insecurity. In August 2023, year-on-year food inflation was 274 percent, and among the highest food inflation rates in the world. Along with inflation, currency depreciation, income losses expected cuts to humanitarian food assistance and increasing tensions negatively impacted the capacity of the different population groups to access food.

This IPC analysis took place between 2 October and 13 October, 2023 and it was assumed that tensions at the southern border would not escalate into a wider conflict. The analysis accounted for the available information, which encompassed several aspects such as access to food and population displacement in districts directly affected by the clashes. Given Lebanon’s heavy dependence on imports and tourism; its already failing infrastructures and fragile value chains, and its dependence on remittance, the consequences in the event of further escalation of the conflict would be harsh. As such, continuous monitoring of the situation is of utmost importance, and depending on the evolution of the situation in the upcoming weeks, an update to this IPC analysis shall take place.

Situation Monitoring: This report, both for the current and projection sections, assumed the “most likely scenario” of no spill over due to the regional tensions and the ongoing war between Israel and Palestine to Lebanon. The analysis period took place between 2 October and 13 October, during which the conflict started, and as such, it was decided to proceed with the analysis assuming the most likely scenario, as it remains early to assume other scenarios and what those would mean in terms of IPC current and projection analysis on the country. Depending on the evolution of the situation in the upcoming short term, an update to the presented IPC analysis in this report might take place. In addition, both the current and projection period analysis assumed a certain level of fragile economic stability, similar to what the country has witnessed over the past six months. Any potential shocks that might render this stability obsolete will need to be monitored, and appropriate updates to the analysis will then be taking place. 

Lifesaving and Humanitarian Food Assistance: Urgent action continues to be required to save lives and reduce food consumption gaps of populations categorized as being in Emergency and Crisis (IPC Phases 4 and 3) by improving access to food through appropriate modalities. While a fragile economic stability has been registered over the past few months, this is happening on a lower level of economic activity in which a high level of food insecurity is becoming structural to the system. The current level of food insecurity, although already high, is only sustainable because of the current level of assistance. 

Any further reduction in the humanitarian response, as projected for next year, especially those affecting refugee populations, along with already inappropriate transfer values or food assistance quantities, which are expected to also decrease for refugee populations, will lead to additional deterioration of the food security of vulnerable households. 

As such, it remains crucial that humanitarian food assistance value is set based on needs and gaps. 

Social safety net systems: The gradual and full unification of the different existing social safety nets remains important to ensure appropriate operational implementation and governance. The proper expansion and standardization of such programs, especially as the removal of the last remaining subsidy in the country becomes closer, is required to ensure consistent assistance is provided to extremely poor Lebanese families. 

Livelihoods assistance: While the fragile economic stability might have a bottoming of the situation on a lower but more stable economic output for the country compared to the drastic deterioration of the past two years, this new stability remains very fragile. As such, the scale-up of different livelihood support programs, especially those in the agricultural sector, becomes of the outmost important, in order to ensure access to stable income sources and mitigate any loss of purchasing power that the most vulnerable households face. 

Agricultural asset creation and recovery: Expansion of the asset creation and recovery programmes in agriculture especially in rural areas with high reliance on food from own production and in areas with high prevalence of households in IPC Phase 2 (Stress) to protect already volatile livelihoods sources. 

Further enhance Food Security and Nutrition Information and Monitoring Systems: Interventions to prevent multiple burdens of malnutrition must be scaled up through multi-sectoral approach to improve diets, practices, and services. In addition, as the risk of rising malnutrition rates has been highlighted, monitoring the nutritional status through a national survey is important. This allows timely detection of malnutrition prevalence and adopted feeding practices.