This acute food insecurity analysis is an update of the projection analysis of the period of November 2020 to March 2021, which has been carried out in ten departments that were included in the state of emergency decreed by the Government of Guatemala, due to the damage and impact caused by the Eta and Iota hurricanes during the month of November. The departments analysed are: Alta Verapaz, Chiquimula, El Progreso, Huehuetenango, Izabal, Jutiapa, Petén, Quiché, Santa Rosa and Zacapa, and the acute food insecurity situation of nearly 6.7 million inhabitants (40% of the total population) in Guatemala (16.9 million inhabitants - INE) is analysed.

This update covers the period of November 2020 to March 2021, which corresponds to the season of high labour demand. According to the livelihood zones, most of these departments belong to the area of basic subsistence and livestock grains; and coffee and cardamom cultivation, among others. Likewise, according to MAGA’s report, these departments were the most impacted by the Eta and Iota hurricanes, with damage to basic grain crops, vegetables and agro-export crops and a damaged area of about 137,000 hectares, generally affecting 204,500 families (equivalent to over 930,000 people), and an economic loss of about Q 897 million.

According to CONRED’s accounts, about 1.8 million people were affected in the 10 departments analysed. The population estimates presented correspond to the 22 departments of the country; however, only the situation in the ten departments most affected by the hurricanes was updated in this projection update. Of the ten departments most affected by this natural phenomenon, eight were classified in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) for the period of August to October 2020; only Izabal and Petén were classified in Stressed (IPC Phase 2). In the projection from the September 2020 analysis, an improvement in the food insecurity situation was expected due to the government’s actions and because of the boost to the economy and the high demand for labour at this time, with a reduction projected from 22% to 16% of populations facing high levels of acute food insecurity (Phase 3 or above). However, due to the impact and damage caused by the hurricanes, the population likely facing high levels of acute food insecurity (IPC Phase 3 or above) increased from the 16% previously projected to 23 %, which implies an additional 7% of people in these conditions. Therefore, despite food aid, there are families who are not able to meet their food needs without exhausting essential assets of their livelihoods and implementing Crisis and Emergency coping strategies.

In contrast to what was originally projected during the October 2020 analysis, the departments of Alta Verapaz, El Progreso, Izabal, Jutiapa, Petén, Santa Rosa and Zacapa are expected to change to a higher phase of acute food insecurity, from Stressed (Phase 2) to Crisis (Phase 3), and the departments of Chiquimula, Huehuetenango and Quiche will likely remain in a situation of Crisis (Phase 3). The main factors that have contributed to the deterioration of the situation are the impact on livelihoods of hurricanes Eta and Iota, income losses due to COVID-19 restrictions, rising food prices and limited household food stocks.

Response priorities:

1. To prioritize response and emergency food aid actions in the departments most affected by the hurricanes in order to mitigate the food consumption gaps and deterioration of the nutritional status of this population, mainly in subsistence and infra-subsistence producers, which constitute 90% of those reported by MAGA.
2. Manage and articulate the different programmes and projects for an immediate response that contributes to reducing consumption gaps and improving the livelihoods of populations in Crisis and Emergency situations.
3. Prepare a response proposal aimed at very short-term reconstruction of livelihoods to reduce consumption gaps between populations in Crisis and those in Emergency situations, in order to reduce their aggravation and to save lives.
4. Present the results of this analysis to CONASAN, international organisations, local governments, associations and partners for their information and decision making.

Risk factors to monitor

Diseases:

• With the cold season, cases of respiratory and diarrhoeal diseases (IRAs and EDA) may increase. Likewise, an increase of the COVID-19 or possible coinfections can be expected.
• The destruction of drinking water and basic sanitation systems, as well as the contamination of water sources, can be a direct cause of gastrointestinal diseases.

Employment and Income:

• Behaviour of the demand for agricultural and non-agricultural employment; temporary and permanent employment, loss of employment and reduction of wages should be monitored.
• The progress of the economic reactivation measures and possible return to social confinement measures according to the evolution of the COVID-19 pandemic; likewise, its consequences in the Food and Nutritional Security derived from the temporary suspension of work, income generation, price evolution and physical access to food and other basic service should be monitored.

Basic food prices:

• The price of maize, beans and other foods should be monitored in the most affected departments, as they could increase due to storm damage or if the restrictions on mobilization due to the COVID-19 pandemic become strict again.