© UNDP

The IPC and the Impact of the War in Ukraine

Overview

The war in Ukraine started on 24 February 2022. Besides devastating the lives of the population of Ukraine and decimating critical parts of the country’s infrastructure and economy, the armed conflict has wide repercussions outside the Ukraine borders. Both Russia and Ukraine are major food crop exporters. Russia plays a prominent role in the global economy as an exporter of oil, natural gas, fertiliser and their components as well as a provider of employment opportunities, especially for citizens from European countries.

What is IPC doing?

The priority for the IPC is to continue providing food security and nutrition analyses in the countries where it operates and ensure that the impact of the war in Ukraine is factored into IPC analyses. The IPC will work to capture the aggravating effects of the war as precisely as possible, producing analyses that combine all other key drivers that affect the food security and nutrition situation at the country level.

 

War in Ukraine: Analysing impact at country level

Guidance for incorporating the effects of the war in Ukraine on the IPC acute food insecurity classifications

Because of the potential impacts of this crisis on global acute food insecurity and nutrition, the IPC Global Support Unit has prepared a Guidance Note as a resource for IPC analysts as they conduct the IPC Acute Food Insecurity analysis.

To conduct country analysis, analysts should consider the different risks the Ukraine crisis poses to food security in the country, e.g. through impact on imports and increasing inflation, mainly linked to high food and fuel prices. However, potential mitigating factors should also be considered such as high self-sufficiency in food products, good trade relations or increasing revenue for the country due to high prices received for exports. This note is structured around the IPC Analytical Framework. It provides a set of guiding questions that analysts should consider when analysing the different food security elements. In simple terms, the following issues may affect countries

Download IPC Technical Guidance Note: English | French | Spanish

Key Aggravating factors

Wheat shortage & high food prices

Dwindling wheat supplies will be experienced as exports from Russia decrease (due to logistical and banking challenges). The crisis also severely curtails exports from Ukraine (naval blockade of the Black Sea). According to the International Grains Council, the wheat index has increased by 49%. The issues related to wheat exports are also likely to have ripple effects as countries and customers resort to other cereals, raising overall cereal prices. As per the FAO Food Price Index, global food prices reached an all-time high in March 2022, driven primarily by increases in cereals, vegetable oil, and meat prices before retreating slightly in April.

High prices of vegetable oils

The war in Ukraine also affects the availability of other vital products, such as sunflower and saffron oils. Even though most of these exports from Ukraine are typically not directed at IPC countries, the same ripple effects on prices of other global vegetable oils are witnessed. As a result, according to the International Food Policy Research Institute, global vegetable oil prices have increased by around 30% since the start of the war.

Rising fuel prices

There was a significant increase in prices of petroleum products during the crisis due to a large number of buyers blocking imports from Russia and buying fuel from alternative suppliers, consequently rising global fuel prices. As per the April 2022 Commodity Markets Outlook of the World Bank, Brent crude oil price is expected to be 42% higher in 2022 compared to 2021. Global fuel prices have direct cost effects on transport across the globe. Furthermore, as energy prices influence many essential consumer goods and services (such as heating, lighting, cooking, price of public and private transport, and imported goods), high oil prices can increase overall inflation at the country level, including food prices.

Higher prices and lower availability of fertilizer

Fertiliser prices have increased globally, and the situation is expected to remain problematic. Russia is one of the world’s largest exporters of fertilisers and fertiliser components. Sanctions affecting banking and transport have led to low exports, and some exporting countries have banned fertiliser exports.

Impact of the War in Ukraine at the Country Level

El Salvador, Honduras, Guatemala

07.07.2022

The total population in IPC Phase 4 (Emergency) increased from 12,000 people to 22,000, at the expense of the deterioration of the population in Phase 3 (Critical). Likewise, the population in IPC Phase 2 (Stressed) increased from 177,000 to 185,000, at the expense of the deterioration of the population in IPC Phase 1 (Minimal/No Food Insecurity).
Ukraine is a major food producer of the world’s supply of cereals: barley, wheat and corn, as well as sunflower oil. The global increase in food prices is reflected at the local level, mainly affecting access to basic grains, corn and beans, and fats, impacting the price of energy in the diet, which restricts consumption and raises the percentages of undernourishment in the most vulnerable population.
International oil prices in March 2022 (US$ 108.5) compared to the same month last year (US$ 62.4) are up 74.0% which is in addition to the 108.7% increase recorded last year. International fertilizer prices increased 128.7% in March 2022, adding to last year’s 42.1% increase. SICA member countries are importers of fertilizers from this region, so the reduction in supply means that prices are expected to remain high, with the consequent risk of a reduction in crop areas, labor demand and future agricultural yields.
See full IPC analysis

Eswatini: High fuel and food prices

04.07.2022

Over 183, 000 people are estimated to be in IPC Phase 3 (Crisis) or above in the current period (June and September 2022), with a 6% increase expected during the projected period (October 2022 – March 2023). The war in Ukraine has led to drastic increases in crude oil prices: as of the end of March 2022, fuel prices were at SZL 21.55 (petrol) and SZL 22.10 (Diesel). The increase in fuel prices was up over 25% year-over-year between March 2021 and March 2022. This increase has had a ripple effect on prices for basic commodities – for example, cereal prices increased by over 34% year-over-year.
See full IPC analysis

Nigeria: Higher food prices and ongoing inflation

23.06.2022

Over 1.3 million children under the age of five are expected to suffer from acute malnutrition in North East Nigeria between January and December 2022 and conditions are expected to worsen as the global cost of Ready-to-Use Therapeutic Food (RUTF) is expected to increase by 16% (UNICEF). Moreover, ongoing inflation in Nigeria is expected to be exacerbated by the jump in fuel and food item costs driven by global supply disruptions following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, leading to a higher increase of expected insecurity during the rainy season. The risk of reduction of funding from main donors for the Lake Chad Basin crisis due to redirection of funds to the Ukraine crisis needs to be monitored.
See full IPC analysis

Sudan: Soaring food prices and low domestic production

21.06.2022

Domestic production of wheat only covers 15% of Sudan’s wheat demand, which makes up approximately a fifth of the total kilocalorie consumption according to IFPRI. In 2020, 60 % of the total wheat imported to Sudan came from Russia (55%) and Ukraine (5%). Poor climatic conditions and increasing cost of imports led to a below average cereal harvest leaving an approximately 1.7 million metric tonne deficit of wheat and a shortage of foreign currency for imports, there is expected to be a surge in wheat prices.
See full IPC analysis

Kenya: High Prices of wheat and essential commodities

10.06.2022

The war in Ukraine has negatively affected fuel prices - an essential commodity in the food supply chain resulting in an increase in food prices. Prices of essential food commodities such as oil and wheat are rising as Kenya depends heavily on regional imports. Around 86% of the total wheat consumption in Kenya is imported. Kenya is a net importer of wheat from Russia. Data from the ministry of agriculture indicates that Kenya’s consumption is forecasted to recover to near pre-COVID-19 levels at 2.25 MMT as Kenya’s hotel and food service sectors reopen against local production of 300,000 tons per annum. Imports have lowered for many countries, including Türkiye, Egypt, the EU, Afghanistan, Algeria, Kenya, Pakistan, Tanzania, and Yemen, based on reduced Black Sea wheat export availability and higher world price.
See full IPC analysis

Guatemala: High prices of fertiliser and other inputs

07.06.2022

War in Ukraine This war has caused the price of fertilisers and agricultural inputs to rise 128.7% in March 2022, adding to last year’s 42.1% increase in SICA countries and therefore in food prices, since both countries are among the largest producers worldwide. SICA member countries are importers of fertilisers from the Russian Federation and Belarus, so the reduction in supply means that prices are expected to remain high, with the consequent risk to agricultural crop yields. In this context, fuel and transportation prices have also increased, causing speculations and food prices.
See full IPC analysis

Somalia: Skyrocketing food prices

06.06.2022

Somalia has seen substantial food price increases (50% or more above the average for the previous five years) due to record-high global food prices and other impacts of the war in Ukraine on global food and fuel trade. Drought and failed local harvests have also driven high food prices in the Horn of Africa nation.
See full IPC analysis

Uganda: Low food stocks and high prices

31.05.2022

Prices of food and non-food commodities increased in Uganda during February and even more rapidly in March 2022. This trend was driven by seasonal declines in below-average stocks of major staples, increased domestic demand due to full reopening of economic activity, rising global and domestic fuel prices, higher costs of imported raw materials, and global trade disruptions linked to the war in Ukraine.
See full IPC analysis

Madagascar: Inflation and low purchasing power

30.05.2022

In the coming months, both for the first and second projections, a deterioration in the food security situation is expected. The global context (COVID-19, war in Ukrainian) will affect inflation and household purchasing power. The expected poor harvests will force people to buy food in markets, where prices will be very volatile. Depending on the district, households will implement crisis and sometimes emergency food and livelihood strategies based on productive livelihoods.
See full IPC analysis

Afghanistan: The rising price of wheat imports

09.05.2022

Afghanistan typically has a deficit in cereals production (against consumption requirements) and relies on imports to meet their food demand. In 2021/2022, the cereal import requirement is expected to be 20% higher than average. The negative impact of the ongoing war in Ukraine is expected to further raise global food prices while placing pressure on countries in the region supplying wheat to Afghanistan to place export bans on food, prioritising their respective domestic consumption.
See full IPC analysis

Central African Republic (CAR): Impact of high fuel prices

26.04.2022

With the war in Ukraine and the sanctions imposed on Russia, the CAR is in danger of suffering significant fuel shortages, which will impact transport costs and prices of essential products and foodstuffs, and imports of wheat and vegetable oil.
See full IPC analysis

Yemen: High price of food imports

14.03.2022

Several economic factors are at play, including the depletion of foreign reserves and the highly volatile exchange rate that has led the YER to depreciate, hollowing out household purchasing power and driving price increases of food and essential non-food items. The foreign currency crisis is compounded by increasing global food prices, shortages of fuel, and reduced household incomes. The war in Ukraine will lead to further import and price shocks, given that more than 40% of Yemen's total imports of cereal are from these countries.
See full IPC analysis

Join our mailing list  

  >