RESOURCES

The IPC partnership defines ‘risk of Famine’ as the reasonable probability of an area going into Famine (IPC Phase 5) in the projected period, when Famine is not the most likely scenario.  When analysts assess that the most likely scenario would result in Famine, either Famine – solid evidence or Famine – reasonable evidence will be classified (depending on the amount and quality of evidence available). By contrast, analysts may assess that in cases where Famine is not most likely, Famine would occur in an alternative scenario that has a reasonable chance of occurrence. While Famine focuses on the most likely scenario, risk of Famine differs from that because it focuses on the worst-case scenario that has a reasonable and realistic chance of happening.

Download the Guidance on the Risk of Famine: definitions, tools and procedures for analysis