Nineteen months into the conflict, the Gaza Strip is still confronted with a critical risk of Famine. Over 60 days have passed since all humanitarian aid and commercial supplies were blocked from entering the territory. Goods indispensable for people’s survival are either depleted or expected to run out in the coming weeks. The entire population is facing high levels of acute food insecurity, with half a million people (one in five) facing starvation.
From 11 May to the end of September 2025, the whole territory is classified in Emergency (IPC Phase 4), with the entire population expected to face Crisis or worse acute food insecurity (IPC Phase 3 or above). This includes 470,000 people (22 percent of the population) in Catastrophe (IPC Phase 5), over a million people (54 percent) in Emergency (IPC Phase 4) and the remaining half million (24 percent) in Crisis (IPC Phase 3). This marks a significant deterioration compared to the previous IPC analysis (released in October 2024) and the already dire conditions detected between 1 April - 10 May 2025. During this time, 1.95 million people (93 percent) were classified in Crisis or worse (IPC Phase 3 or above), including 244,000 people (12 percent) in IPC Phase 5 (Catastrophe) and 925,000 (44 percent) in IPC Phase 4 (Emergency).
Between 1 April and 10 May, acute malnutrition (AMN) was at Alert and Serious levels (IPC AMN Phase 2 and 3). However, experience has shown that acute malnutrition can worsen rapidly, and latest data indicate a deteriorating trend that is expected to persist. Consequently, acute malnutrition in North Gaza, Gaza and Rafah governorates will likely reach Critical levels (IPC AMN Phase 4) between 11 May and end of September.
With the announced expansion of military operations throughout the Gaza Strip, the persistent inability of humanitarian agencies to access populations in dire need, an anticipated escalation in hostilities, and the continued mass displacement of people, the risk of Famine in the Gaza Strip is not just possible- It is increasingly likely.
The Integrated Food Security Phase Classication (IPC) defines Famine as an extreme deprivation of food. Starvation, death, destitution and extremely critical levels of acute malnutrition are or will likely be evident. The IPC plays a critical role in identifying Famine conditions, and informing the response needed to save millions of lives. The IPC is now the primary mechanism the international community uses to analyse data and arrive at a conclusion whether famine is happening or likely happening in a country. Analyses are based on evidence gathered by a wide range of partners and multistakeholder technical consensus.
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