DISCLAIMER: Please note that this IPC Acute Food Insecurity analysis was integrated with an IPC Acute Malnutrition analysis. 

This IPC projection update for the Kenya’s Arid and Semi-Arid Lands (ASAL) region, covering the March to June period, was triggered by several cumulative factors. Firstly, the expected March-April-May seasonal rainfall amount received across most livelihood zones was below the long-term seasonal averages and exacerbated by poor spatial distribution. This negatively affected rangeland and also sparked resource-based conflicts. These resource-based conflicts are coupled with rising food commodity prices due to depressed crop production that coincides with the peak lean season for most Arid and Semi-Arid Livelihood counties. Overall, these factors indicate an increase in the number of people facing high levels of acute food insecurity to 4.1 million, over the 3.5 million initially projected over the same period. This includes 1.1 million in IPC Phase 4 (Emergency) and 3 million in IPC Phase 3 (Crisis).

According to the revised assumptions regarding Acute Malnutrition (AMN), the previously forecasted change (deterioration) in the AMN situation in eight counties will likely continue following the same trend. The only exception is Mandera County, where new evidence from a recent SMART survey conducted in March found a prevalence of a Global Acute Malnutrition (GAM) of 34,7%. Therefore, the county is now classified in an Extremely Critical situation (IPC AMN Phase 5) from March to May. About 942,500 children aged 6-59 months are affected by acute malnutrition and need treatment. In Mandera alone, the overall number of children in need of treatment has increased to nearly 126,140, representing an increase of 30%. The decline in household consumption and particularly of dairy products due to reduced mild availability has expected implications for child malnutrition, but it is not the only factor. High morbidity to diseases affecting the Respiratory Tract and water-borne diseases are also a major driver.

Acute Food Insecurity

• Provide timely, coordinated multi-sectoral humanitarian assistance to contain accelerated food insecurity and malnutrition in the affected areas of the ASAL counties;

• Enhance livelihood interventions, building resilience to future shocks through asset creation, Safety Nets programs, Market Access initiatives, food commodities and cash for around 4.1 million highly food insecure people in need of assistance between March and June 2022;

• Strengthen the different pest and disease controls and provision of farm inputs such as seeds, including drought-tolerant and early-maturing seeds, fertilisers and subsidised mechanical services including post-harvesting management;

• Provide water trucking, repair and servicing of generator sets and sub-miscible pumps, support to the borehole rapid response team, fuel subsidy to strategic boreholes, extension and maintenance of water structures and systems and solarisation of boreholes;

• Promote rainwater harvesting and technology, construction of elevated steel storage tanks, construction of water kiosks, drilling of boreholes, and installation of prepaid water meters for communal usage. Provide water tanks and promote water harvesting in schools;

• Reactivate delivery and scale-up school meals programmes, construction of storage facilities for food commodities and cash transfer to schools for purchase of food items;

• Promote peace-building initiatives to resolve conflict over resources and monitoring of potential conflict locations and support to affected communities to build back better.