• In September 2017, 6 million people were in Crisis (IPC Phase 3), Emergency (IPC Phase 4) and Catastrophe (IPC Phase 5), which corresponded to 56% of the total population.
  

• From October to December 2017, the number of people in need of humanitarian assistance (IPC phase 3 and above) is expected to drop to 4.8 million (45% of the total population. However, this figure includes a doubled number of people classified in Emergency (IPC Phase 4) compared to the same time last year, and 25,000 people still experiencing catastrophic conditions and extreme food gaps.  
  

• By January-March 2018, it is estimated that 5.1 million (48% of the total population) people will continue to face acute food insecurity, with 20,000 people in Humanitarian Catastrophe (IPC Phase 5). 

• Persistent insecurity and armed conflict have disrupted livelihood activities, affected market functionality and limited physical access to markets. In particular, the widespread conflict has brought nearly 2 million people to seek refuge in neighbouring countries. The worsening economic crisis has resulted in high food prices, local currency devaluation and hyperinflation, which in turn eroded household purchasing power. In addition, an anticipated earlier-than-normal start of the lean season in many areas will further hamper people’s food security, threatening the very survival of the most vulnerable. 

• Acute malnutrition has worsened compared to the same period in 2016 and remains high in many parts of South Sudan. Renk, Upper Nile, Twic, Warrap  and the Greater Baggari area in Wau former counties have Extreme Critical levels of acute malnutrition while 31 counties in Lakes, NBeG, Unity, parts of Jonglei, WBeG and Eastern Equatoria, show Critical levels of acute malnutrition. The main contributing factors are the high levels food insecurity; widespread fighting, displacement; poor access to services; high morbidity; extremely poor diets; poor hygiene and sanitation. Levels of acute malnutrition are expected to improve marginally by December 2017 due to seasonal availability of local production, increased availability of fish and milk at the household level, and improved road access due to dry conditions.

• Ensure humanitarian access to deliver assistance to populations facing the most severe conditions. In particular, immediate and unhindered provision of humanitarian assistance and close monitoring are needed in Greater Baggari

• Scale up an integrated intervention program, to reach those who are facing severe undernutrition, death and destitution in order to avert deterioration to famine levels.

• Implement a standardized system to monitor population movements, in order to provide up to date documentation and mapping needed to plan humanitarian interventions.

Severe food insecurity is affecting the population as a whole, with internally displaced persons (IDPs) being the most vulnerable.

• In September 2017, the areas of highest concern were the three former Greater regions of South Sudan. In particular, populations in Humanitarian Catastrophe (IPC Phase 5) were observed in Nyirol and Ayod counties of former Jonglei; Kapoeta East of former Eastern Equatoria state; and Wau County of former Western Bahr el Ghazal state.

• In October – December 2017, populations in Humanitarian Catastrophe remain in Ayod and former Wau counties. In particular, the situation is dire in the Baggari area of former Western Bahr el Gahzal. An increase of populations in Emergency (IPC Phase 4) is observed particularly in Central Equatoria, Jonglei and Uppen Nile.

Even though no county has been classified in Famine (IPC Phase 5) in this IPC update, there are still people facing humanitarian catastrophe in the counties most affected by conflict and insecurity. In the worst case scenario, given the severity of the food security and nutrition situation observed during the 2017 lean season, continued conflict, humanitarian access constraints, climatic shocks and macro-economic instability leading up to the 2018 lean season will likely result in Famine (IPC Phase 5) conditions in multiple locations across South Sudan.  

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