Somalia: Nearly 5.6 million people experiencing high levels of acute food insecurity, Famine projected in parts of south central regions from April to June 2023

: © WFP Somalia

Overview

Between October and December 2022, about 5.6 million people across Somalia are experiencing high levels of acute food insecurity classified in Crisis or worse (IPC Phase 3 or above). Among these, 1,5 million people are classified in Emergency (IPC Phase 4) and 214,000 in Catastrophe (IPC Phase 5).

In the period between January and March 2023, the number of people facing Crisis or worse (IPC Phase 3 or above) is expected to increase up to 6. 4 million, of which 1.9 million will be in Emergency (IPC Phase 4) and 322,000 in Catastrophe (IPC Phase 5).

Between April and June 2023, amid anticipated reduction in funding for humanitarian assistance in crucial sectors from April 2023 onwards, approximately 8.3 million people across Somalia, about half the country’s population, are expected to face Crisis or worse (IPC Phase 3 or above). Among these, 2.7 million people are expected to be in Emergency (IPC Phase 4) and 727,000 in Catastrophe (IPC Phase 5).

Following the commendable response efforts of humanitarian actors and local communities, the food insecurity and acute malnutrition situation has not reached IPC Phase 5 Famine levels in October - December 2022. However, between April and June 2023, Famine (IPC Phase 5) is projected among agropastoral populations in Baidoa and Burhakaba districts and displaced populations in Baidoa town of Bay region and in Mogadishu. In addition, several areas and population groups in central and southern Somalia are at risk of Famine.

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Somalia: Famine Review of the IPC Analysis

Conclusions and Recommendations or Baidoa And Burhakaba Rural Districts, and Baidoa and Mogadishu IDP Sites, Somalia

The FRC has reviewed the current and projected classifications for the three areas, namely Baidoa and Burhakaba Rural districts and Baidoa and Mogadishu IDPs, that were referred to them by the Somalia IPC Technical Working Group (TWG). The FRC has endorsed the IPC analysis conducted by the Somalia IPC Technical Working Group (TWG) for October-December 2022 and January-March 2023 but was unable to endorse a Famine (IPC Phase 5) classification for the three areas between April and June 2023 with a sufficient degree of confidence, due to the high degree of uncertainty and volatility. The TWG could however publish their projection stating clearly and quantifying the assumptions leading to their classification. The FRC is of the opinion that if funding, outreach, management and coverage in all sectors and in particular in health and WASH are not scaled up, famine is a strong possibility and not only in the April-June 2023 period but well beyond that.

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IPC Classification Maps

IPC Famine Factsheet

Learn more about IPC Famine Classification processes:

The Integrated Food Security Phase Classication (IPC) defines famine as an extreme deprivation of food. Starvation, death, destitution and extremely critical levels of acute malnutrition are or will likely be evident. The IPC plays a critical role in identifying famine conditions, and informing the response needed to save millions of lives. The IPC is now the primary mechanism the international community uses to analyse data and arrive at a conclusion whether famine is happening or likely happening in a country. Analyses are based on evidence gathered by a wide range of partners and multistakeholder technical consensus.
Download IPC Famine Factsheet here