Somalia: 6.7 million people across Somalia will likely face high levels of acute food insecurity, Famine projected in two districts

Somalia, September 2022

: © OCHA

Overview

Approximately 6.7 million people across Somalia are expected to face high levels of acute food insecurity (IPC Phase 3 or above) between October and December 2022. This includes 2.2 million people who are expected to be in Emergency (IPC Phase 4) and at least 300,000 people in Catastrophe (IPC Phase 5). Furthermore, Famine (IPC Phase 5) is projected among rural residents in Baidoa and Burhakaba districts and displaced people in Baidoa town of Bay region in southern Somalia, where malnutrition and mortality levels are already at alarming levels. These projections reflect the population still in need of urgent assistance after accounting for already planned assistance for October to December 2022. Humanitarian needs are extremely high due to the impacts of four consecutive seasons of poor rainfall, an anticipated fifth season of below-average rainfall from October to December, and exceptionally high food prices, exacerbated by concurrent conflict/insecurity and disease outbreaks (primarily acute watery diarrhea/cholera and measles). In addition to the Famine (IPC Phase 5) projection in two districts of Bay Region, several areas in central and southern Somalia face an increased Risk of Famine through at least December 2022 if (1) the 2022 Deyr season rainfall turns out to be poorer than currently predicted, leading to more crop and livestock production failures and (2) humanitarian assistance does not reach the country’s most vulnerable populations. The areas and population groups facing an increased Risk of Famine are Hawd Pastoral of Central and Hiiraan; Addun Pastoral of Northeast and Central; Coastal Deeh Pastoral of Central; Sorghum High Potential Agropastoral of Middle Shabelle; and IDP settlements in Mogadishu, Garowe, Galkacyo, and Dollow. Critical (IPC Phase 4) levels of acute malnutrition and excess mortality levels are already occurring in these areas. The delivery of the ongoing response is currently mitigating the size of the acutely food insecure population. Levels of acute food insecurity across Somalia remain high and will further deteriorate if a multisectoral and coordinated response is not scaled up and sustained.
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Key messages

Based on integrated food security, nutrition and mortality surveys conducted in June and July 2022 and subsequent IPC analysis, agropastoral populations in Baidoa and Burhakaba districts and displaced populations in Baidoa town of Bay Region in Somalia are projected to face Famine (IPC Phase 5) between October and December 2022 in the absence of significant humanitarian assistance reaching people most in need. This Famine projection was made by a multi-disciplinary team of technical experts working as part of the Somalia IPC Technical Working Group (IPC TWG). The analysis and evidence for the Famine projection were subsequently reviewed and technically vetted by the Famine Review Committee (FRC) – a panel of independent international food security and nutrition experts.
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IPC Classification Maps

CURRENT: Acute Food Insecurity Situation June - September 2022

PROJECTION: Acute Food Insecurity Situation October - December 2022

Somalia: Famine Review of the IPC Analysis

The IPC Famine Review Committee (FRC) was activated on August 5th 2022 following a request from the IPC Somalia Technical Working Group (TWG), to review their recent analysis of three units of analysis in Bay region (rural populations in Baidoa and Burhakaba districts, and newly arrived IDPs in Baidoa settlements). These had been preliminarily classified by the Somalia TWG in Emergency (IPC Phase 4) during the current period (August - September 2022), for both Acute Food Insecurity (AFI) and Acute Malnutrition (AMN), and in Famine (IPC Phase 5) during the projection period (October - December 2022). For the current period, the FRC considers the IPC TWG classifications as plausible: IPC Phase 4 AFI (Emergency) and IPC Phase 4 AMN (Critical) in Baidoa and Burhakaba districts (rural) and in the newly arrived IDPs.

Considering the interaction among several, steadily deteriorating drivers and the inadequate levels of humanitarian assistance that is planned, likely funded and likely deliverable, the FRC found the IPC TWG classification in IPC Phase 5 (Famine) plausible for the projection period in Baidoa and Burhakaba districts (rural) and the newly arrived IDPs in Baidoa settlements.

In inaccessible areas of the Baidoa and Burhakaba districts, where data collection could not be conducted, the FRC estimates that conditions are similar or worse than in partly accessible and accessible areas. In line with the IPC Famine Guidance Note, the FRC classified these areas in IPC Phase 5 (Famine Likely) during the projection period (October to December 2022), based on their expert judgement.
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Download FRC report Annexes
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IPC Famine Factsheet

Learn more about IPC Famine Classification processes:

The Integrated Food Security Phase Classication (IPC) defines famine as an extreme deprivation of food. Starvation, death, destitution and extremely critical levels of acute malnutrition are or will likely be evident. The IPC plays a critical role in identifying famine conditions, and informing the response needed to save millions of lives. The IPC is now the primary mechanism the international community uses to analyse data and arrive at a conclusion whether famine is happening or likely happening in a country. Analyses are based on evidence gathered by a wide range of partners and multistakeholder technical consensus.
Download IPC Famine Factsheet here