SPECIAL NOTE: This Alert reflects the results validated by the South Sudan IPC Technical Working Group and officially endorsed by the Cabinet Resolution of the Government of South Sudan Council of Ministers as well as the recommendations of the IPC Global Support Unit Real-Time Quality Review (IPC GSU).
Based on the IPC Country Results
- Currently, 3.1 million are in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) and 830,000 in Emergency (IPC Phase 4), and of extreme concern are 30,000 people estimated to be Catastrophe (IPC Phase 5) requiring urgent humanitarian assistance;
- Famine is not declared at this time in areas highly affected by conflict due to limited evidence available. There is a concrete risk of Famine occurring between October and December 2015 if urgent humanitarian access and assistance is not provided in the most affected areas.
WHERE - The worst affected areas are 4 counties in the areas highly influenced by conflict in Unity State (Leer, Guit, Koch and Mayendit Counties). The other states of concern are the other two conflict-affected States of Jonglei and Upper Nile in the Greater Upper Nile.
WHO - The most affected populations are the Internally Displaced Persons (IDPs) who are dispersed and the host communities affected by the on-going conflict.
WHY - This complex emergency in South Sudan is caused by high underlying vulnerability and severe effects of the conflict and displacement compounded by limited humanitarian access, resulting in loss of livelihoods, income, assets, inadequate food access, market disruption, high prices, and unstainable coping.
According to the IPC GSU Real-time Quality Review (RTQR) Report
RISK OF FAMINE
- The IPC GSU RTQR corroborated that available food security and nutrition evidence indicate a very critical situation that may escalate to famine conditions if humanitarian assistance does not reach the highly affected populations during the period of October to December 2015 in areas most affected by conflict in Unity.
- There is a great concern that famine may exist in the coming months but it may not be possible to validate it at that time due to lack of evidence as the result of limited access to the affected areas and populations.
- Urgent humanitarian access and assistance to those 860,000 people classified in IPC Phase 4 and 5 to save their lives and livelihoods and to prevent escalation into famine.
- Urgent action required for the 3.1 million classified in Phase 3 Crisis to protect livelihoods, reduce food consumption gaps and reduce acute malnutrition
- Vigilance is required in monitoring the evolving situation and updating the IPC Analysis (Oct – Dec).
- It is imperative that more data is available to support real-time updates, especially nutrition and mortality data.
- An IPC Global Emergency Review Committee (ERC) will be activated to support the SS IPC Technical Working Group real-time IPC update and the potential declaration of Famine.
> The last IPC Results for South Sudan are available at: Current and Projected Situation
> The full IPC ALERT, Issue 3, 22 October 2015 is available below: