As for the period Feb-May, 2017, the most affected departments are Grand 'Anse, Sud, Nippes. these departments were hit by hurricane Mathieu and, despite the delivery of food assistance, are classified in IPC phase 3 (crisis). Without food assistance, these departments would have been probably be in IPC phase 4 (emergency).
Other departments (South-East, Haut Artibonite, Nord-East), which were slightly affected or not affected by hurricane Mathieu, are also classified in IPC phase 3. In addition to hurricane effects, these departments have also experienced two consecutive years of drought.
In these areas, despite the delivery of humanitarian aid, at least one household out of five is adopting strategies affecting livelihoods and is unable to meet the minimum food requirements.
For the projected period June-Sept. 2017, the situation is expected to slightly improve due to harvests expected from June onwards. However, this improvement will not imply a change in the IPC classification for the current period, in particular in the North-West and Grand-Anse, due to the large decapitalization of the households. These areas are maintained in IPC crisis phase while the others (South, Nippes, Southeast, and Northeast) will move from IPC crisis phase to the IPC stress phase or IPC minimal phase (such as the West departments).
On the other hand, some factors may change scenarios:
- an epidemic of Zika or Cholera during the rainy season;
- the passage of a hurricane between July and November;
- lower than average rainfall at the critical crop production between July and September;
- inadequate household assistance;
- failure to respond to the recovery plan;
- socio-political issues.
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