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Republic of South Sudan: Current (April 2016) and Projected (May-July 2016) Acute Food Insecurity Situation

01/04/2016 - 31/07/2016
South Sudan

The overall food and nutrition security situation has deteriorated in many parts of the country with an estimated 4.3 million people in Phases 3, 4 & 5  in April 2016, a significant increase from the 2.8 million people in January–March 2016 projection.


This population is also a significant increase when compared to the 3.8 million people that faced severe food insecurity in April 2015. According to the normal ‘lean season’ pattern, the situation is expected to deteriorate further during the May–July 2016 lean season with an estimated 4.8 million people being severely food insecure.  The current deterioration in food security and nutrition is primarily due to physical insecurity, the effects of the economic crisis and depleted stocks from the last harvest.


The worst affected population is likely to include the displaced, returning households and the low income earners who are characterized by minimal assets and low purchasing power to satisfy their food needs. Approximately 300,000 people are the urban poor/food insecure located in Juba, Wau and Aweil towns. In the current analysis, approximately 350,000 people in Protection of Civilians [PoC] and IDP camps are excluded because they are classified in Phase 2 although their survival depends on regular humanitarian assistance. 


As the Peace Agreement is implemented and the Transitional Government of National Unity (TGoNU) starts functioning in earnest, it is expected that the physical security situation will gradually improve within the projection period (May–July 2016). This will have some positive impact on markets, livelihoods and humanitarian space. However, despite these limited gains the food security and nutrition situation between May and July 2016 will continue to be affected negatively due to the economic crisis, high food prices, pockets of insecurity and restrictions on movement as roads become impassable during the rainy season. Notwithstanding scaled up humanitarian assistance, the risk of famine cannot be ruled out in parts of former Unity state and the Greater Bahr el Ghazal region where some food security and nutrition indicators were within the Phase 5 thresholds during the analysis. The current monitoring system will be maintained and measures for real time access to areas at risk will be strengthened.


The IPC South Sudan TWG recommends that Government and humanitarian and development partners should: 

  • Continue ongoing interventions to protect and save lives and livelihoods and scale up these same in counties where there are no interventions yet, especially in Greater Bahr el Ghazal and Equatoria regions.   
  • Scale up interventions to reduce structural causes and curb food and nutrition insecurity upward trends.  
  • Secure the environment for monitoring food security, nutrition and mortality data in the field to support real-time IPC updates. 

Download below the full IPC SS TWG communication summary including both current and projected findings. 

Food Security ClustersFEWS NETFAOThe Comité permanent Inter-Etats de Lutte contre la Sécheresse dans le Sahel (CILSS)CARE InternationalACF
The World Food Programme (WFP)unicefSICASave the ChildrenOxfamThe Joint research Center (JRC) of the European CommissionIGAD