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Republic of South Sudan: Projected Acute Food Insecurity Overview June - August 2014

01/06/2014 - 30/08/2014
South Sudan
Description

Overall, about 3.9 million people (34% of the total population) are projected to be in crisis or emergency food insecurity levels during June through August 2014. This is approximately a 10% increase compared to the population under the current levels (May 2014). The three most affected States of Jonglei, Upper Nile and Unity will continue accounting for about 56% of the total population in crisis and emergency phases (over 2.2 million people). The other 44% (about 1.8 million people) are contributed by the other seven (7) states as follows: Northern Bahr el Ghazal (13%), Lakes (9%), Warrap (6%), Eastern Equatoria (5%), Western Bahr el Ghazal (4%), Central Equatoria (4%) and Western Equatoria (3%).

During the period of June to August 2014, the food insecurity situation is expected to further deteriorate; particularly for the three (3) most affected states. However, increases in milk, wild foods and fish during June through August are expected to sustain and hence trap affected populations in the emergency phase. This will be further supplemented by the onset of green harvests of maize, sorghum, pumpkins and vegetables during August, even with reduced cultivation. Similarly, the latest informal reports indicate that there is significant security-related population movements (described as migration); particularly from central Jonglei and eastern Upper Nile (Nasir and Ulang) into Ethiopia, where the security situation is more stable. Another possibility of the population movements is that it is more difficult to move when the rainy season starts in June.

A number of Counties in Jonglei, Unity and Upper Nile that are currently in emergency phase will continue being areas of concern. Based on the percentages of HHs in emergency (phase 4), the following counties will need to be monitored more carefully: Uror, Nyirol and Ayod counties in Jonglei and Panyijar, Leer and Mayendit Counties in Unity State. Geographically, many of these counties are located in the interior of their respective states and potentially suffer from serious access constraints and hence restricted population movements.

Experience has shown that the combination of conflict and drought is more likely to cause a famine in South Sudan. Therefore, if the current rainfall expectation continues as predicted (normal to above normal), the chances of famine occurring will be reduced even further. Consequently, the SS IPC TWG will be diligently monitoring the rainfall performance for the next few months. Although no Counties/areas are expected to slip into phase 5 (famine) during the projected period, the TWG will also be keenly monitoring the food security situation of the most vulnerable HHs in the most affected areas; especially Counties where more than 30% of its population was in phase 4 in May 2014. Similarly, without sustained humanitarian assistance, IDPs are more likely (than any other group) to slip into a worse phase. 

Food Security ClustersFEWS NETFAOThe Comité permanent Inter-Etats de Lutte contre la Sécheresse dans le Sahel (CILSS)CARE InternationalACF
The World Food Programme (WFP)unicefSICASave the ChildrenOxfamThe Joint research Center (JRC) of the European CommissionIGAD