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Madagascar: Acute Food Insecurity Situation August-October 2017 and Projection for November 2017 - March 2018

01/08/2017 - 31/03/2018

The period from August to October 2017 coincides with the harvest period but also at the beginning of the lean season especially for the households in phase 4 and 3. Because of insufficient food production that remains below the average of the last 5 years, the situation has slightly deteriorated in the Great South compared to the period from March to June 2017. However, compared to the post-harvest period of 2016, a note-worthy improvement in the situation is recorded. A slight increase in the order of 10% of households in phase 3 and 4 was found. The percentage of population in phase 3 has increased from 26% to 35% while that of households in phase 4 has increased from 8% to 10%.

For the South East, the situation is quite mixed if we compare the period August to October 2017 to the period from March to June 2017. The percentage of populations in phase 3 and 4 increased from 37% to 41%. However, an improvement is noted for the Vohipeno and Manakara districts while degradation is recorded for Farafangana and Vangaindrano Districts. Indeed, for these two Districts, the proportion of population ranked in phase 3 increased by 20% for Farafangana and 15% for Vangaindrano. Also, the number of people in need of urgent action to protect their livelihoods and reduce food deficits from August to October 2017 reaches 1,289,171 people differently distributed across the analysis zones.

The majority of food consumption and livelihoods indicators show the persistence of the crisis and the increase in the proportion of households in the CPI crisis (3) and emergency (4) phase.

The interruption of humanitarian aid since June 2017, the low food availability expected during the lean, access problems, Seasonal inflation, combined with water problems (access, quality and use) contribute to the degradation of the nutritional situation of children. And trends show that the peak of malnutrition is reached around February-March, hence the need to strengthen nutritional surveillance.

Thus, for the projected period from November 2017 to March 2018, without any palliative measure, an increase in the population in phase 3 and 4 would be expected. More specifically, 1,630,000 people, or 54% of the population in the analysis areas, will require urgent action to protect their livelihoods, reduce their food deficits and the prevalence of acute malnutrition. For the Great South, the situation is likely to deteriorate further if no action is taken already for the preparation of the off-season and the accompaniment of the peasants in the start of the agricultural campaign.

Food Security ClustersFEWS NETFAOThe Comité permanent Inter-Etats de Lutte contre la Sécheresse dans le Sahel (CILSS)CARE InternationalACF
The World Food Programme (WFP)unicefSICASave the ChildrenOxfamThe Joint research Center (JRC) of the European CommissionIGAD