In the analysis period of January 2020, 5.29 million people (45.2% of the population) are estimated to have faced Crisis (IPC Phase 3) or worse acute food insecurity, of which 1.11 million people faced Emergency (IPC Phase 4) acute food insecurity. About 40,000 people were classified in Catastrophe (IPC Phase 5) in the counties of Akobo , Duk and Ayod in Jonglei State. Compared with the same time last year, the January 2020 levels of food insecurity reflect a 9% reduction in the proportion of population facing Crisis (IPC Phase 3) or worse acute food insecurity.
In the projection period of February to April 2020, 6.01 million people (51.4% of the population) will likely face Crisis (IPC Phase 3) or worse acute food insecurity, with 20,000 people in the counties of Akobo and Duk estimated to be in Catastrophe (IPC Phase 5). In the projection period of May to July 2020, 6.48 million people (55.4% of the population) will face Crisis (IPC Phase 3) or worse acute food insecurity, which is 5% lower than was projected for the 2019 lean season .
Immediate scale-up of humanitarian food assistance is needed to save lives and avert total collapse of livelihoods in the affected counties particularly those with populations in Catastrophe (Phase 5) and Emergency (Phase 4).
The most severe acute food insecurity conditions are in the flood-affected counties of Akobo, Duk and Ayod. In January 2020, 15 counties across the country were classified in Emergency (IPC Phase 4) acute food insecurity, with Greater Upper Nile region having 12 (Longochuk, Maban, Maiwut and Ulang of Upper Nile State; and Akobo, Ayod, Canal/Pigi, Duk, Fangak, Nyirol, Pibor and Uror of Jonglei State); Greater Bahr el Ghazal region having 2 (Rumbek North of Lakes State, and Aweil North of Northern Bahr el Ghazal); and Greater Equatoria region having 1 (Kapoeta North of Eastern Equatoria State). Of the remaining counties, 51 are in Crisis (IPC Phase 3), and 12 are in Stressed (IPC Phase 2). From February to April 2020, 22 counties are in Emergency (IPC Phase 4), and the number will increase to 33 counties in May to July 2020.
The cumulative effects of flooding and associated population displacements, localized insecurity, the economic crisis, and prolonged years of asset depletion continue to drive the high levels of acute food insecurity in the country. Low crop production is also a contributing factor, with the 2019 cropping season production meeting 63% of the 2020 national cereal needs (comparatively, 2018 cereal production met 57% of the 2019 national cereal needs). Isolated insecurity incidents displace populations, disrupt livelihoods and impede households’ access to other food sources, such as wild foods, fish, and livestock products. The high food prices and continued currency depreciation have also consistently reduced the purchasing power of vulnerable households who are reliant on market purchases for their food and other basic needs. Seasonal scarcity of food coupled with a general reduction in humanitarian food assistance, when compared to the recent past, will likely result in an increase of acute food insecurity during the projection periods.
Food Security
Humanitarian food assistance must be scaled up immediately to save lives and prevent total collapse of livelihoods in the Payams where populations were classified in Catastrophe (IPC Phase 5) as well as for the populations classified in Emergency (IPC Phase 4). Furthermore, nutrition partners should collect nutritional and mortality data in the flood-affected Payams in Jonglei State to ascertain the situation in these areas.
In all regions, the necessary conditions for addressing the food security crisis are:
- Continued implementation of the peace agreement and cessation of isolated insecurity incidents;
- Scale-up provision of humanitarian assistance (in kind and cash transfers) to counties in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) and above in order to cover at a minimum the six most food insecure months of the year;
- Provide livelihood support through improved market access, provision of seeds & tools (farm inputs) to stimulate production back to surplus levels in the more productive and stable counties;
- Maintain support to small scale subsistence producers (often the pastoral/ agro-pastoral areas) in less agricultural productive locations and include veterinary support (animal health);
- Scale up and improve access to basic services: WASH and health service delivery year-round; plus emergency nutrition, especially during the lean season; and
- Close monitoring of at-risk counties where food insecurity is high, with populations in Emergency (IPC Phase 4) and above.
Nutrition
The multi-sectoral component of acute malnutrition and the enabling factors within the country are clear drivers of the significant deterioration of the nutrition situation in South Sudan. This has led to an increased projection of children likely to suffer from acute malnutrition in 2020 indicative of a looming nutritional emergency that need to be addressed urgently and extensively. In 2020, about 1.3 million children will need nutrition assistance in the country, including about 300,000 and 1.0 million children projected to be severely and moderately malnourished, respectively. It is, therefore, necessary to adopt a paradigm shift and move from clinical and crisis approach to preventive and community-based approach. There is urgent need to extend the response to vital gap areas, ensure adequate intake of diverse diet, multi-sectoral collaboration and redefine community outreach structures to strengthen the resilience of populations and reduce their vulnerability to shocks. This also involves identifying areas of convergence with development partners and multi stakeholder involvement to address all forms of malnutrition.
To view the Acute Malnutrition maps for this analysis, please click here.
How Severe, How Many and When – A total of 1.3 million children under five years are expected to suffer from acute malnutrition in 2020 based on the results of the food security and nutrition monitoring system, SMART nutrition surveys and admission trends for 2019. The estimation of the caseload was based on the peak lean season data that provide higher caseload for better informed response planning. Furthermore, new incidence factor of 2.9 and total malnutrition (both MUAC and WHZ) were used as opposed to incidence factor of 2.6 and prevalence based on WHZ only.
Where – In January 2020, 48 counties are classified as Serious (IPC Acute Malnutrition Phase 3 and above): Uror, Nyirol, Duk, Akobo, Fangak, Canal Pigi, Bor South, and Ayod (Jonglei State), Longochuk, Luakpiny/Nasir, Melut, Ulang, Melut (Upper Nile State), Leer, Panyijiar, (Unity State), Gogrial East, Gogrial West, Twic (Warrap State). Budi, Kapoeta North (Eastern Equatoria state) and Aweil South (Northern Bahr el Ghazal state) are classified as Critical (IPC Acute Malnutrition Phase 4). There are 20 more counties classified as Critical (IPC Acute Malnutrition Phase 4) in the 2020 post-harvest season, as compared to 12 in the same period in 2019. Improvements in the nutrition situation within the country were varied. While counties in most states, particularly Western Bahr el Ghazal and Western Equatoria, have shown substantial seasonal improvement in malnutrition, high malnutrition levels have remained Jonglei and Upper Nile states.
Why – The major factors contributing to acute malnutrition include very poor quality and diversity of food (Minimum Acceptable Diet: 5%, Minimum dietary diversity: 17%) and an unexpectedly high prevalence of diseases (above 50%). The high morbidity rate is attributed to flooding that has worsened the spread of malaria and unsafe drinking water. Over 50% of the counties affected by flooding, show critical levels of acute malnutrition (IPC Acute Malnutrition Phase 4). Elevated levels of acute food insecurity (IPC Acute Malnutrition Phase 3 and above) also contributed to acute malnutrition in some counties. Outbreaks of measles in some counties, such as Budi and Aweil South, also had an impact on the nutrition situation in these counties.