As of July 2016, 83% of the total population in the country is classified as minimally food insecure (IPC Phase 1), meaning that, currently, their food security situation is stable. They have access to a variety of adequate food both from household stocks and market, following good harvests from the first season of 2016 and early onset of second rainy season in the Northern region. The food is available in the markets and is at affordable prices for those who depend on market purchases. The livestock body condition and milk yields are good because pasture and water are available in adequate quantities. The availability of food is expected to be adequate for the population for the next two months. After October, the majority of the population currently in IPC Phase 1 is expected to experience food shortage and shift to IPC phase 2 (food security stressed phase).

16% of the total population in the country is facing stressed food insecurity (IPC Phase 2). This population is spread across the country, but the majority is located in Karamoja, Teso, Acholi and West‐Nile regions. They have limited food stocks due to the effects of an extensive dry spell period which started three weeks earlier than expected. This caused crop losses ranging from 40% to 80% for both cereals and pulses. The increasing incidences of diseases such as Cassava Brown Streak, Cassava Mosaic and other various banana diseases have also reduced the availability of food for the populations in the these regions. Another effect of the dry spell was the reduction of livestock productivity and high prevalance of livestock diseases. The most affected region is Karamoja where high livestock deaths were recorded due to black quarter, tick borne and trypanosomiasis disease epidemics respectively. In Western Uganda, the affected population includes those who were displaced in Bundibudyo due to internal conflicts, the refugees in camps in Kiryandongo, Kyangwali, Kyaka II and Rwamwanja, and the host families to refugees from South Sudan in West Nile and Acholi regions. This population has low dietary diversity because of low food stocks and livestock productivity combined with low purchasing power and high prices of fish and meat that are limiting access to animal protein. The situation is not expected to improve in the next three months.

1% of the total population in the country is in Crisis (IPC Phase 3). This population is found in Karamoja region, with the GAM rates of up to 12%, which is above the 10% threshold. The affected population includes the poorest households with poor food consumption score and low dietary diversity. They have poor purchasing power and no food stocks at household level. They are mainly coping through wild food gathering, sale of shoats and firewood to buy food. A slight improvement is expected after harvesting sorghum that should start in August. However, this might not make any impact on the population shifting to a lower phase.

In concluding its analysis, the IPC Technical Working group planned to disseminate the results of the IPC analysis to policy makers for action and to update the analysis in November of 2016.

Moreover, the IPC Technical Working Group identified the following risk factors to monitor between August and November of 2016:

• Food Stocks
• Livestock diseases
• Weather changes (July‐October 2016/LaNina)
• Availability of water and pasture for livestock (July‐September)
• Food price hikes (July‐September)
• Rainfall (Mid‐August)
• War in South Sudan