Areas traditionally most vulnerable to food insecurity as Bugesera and Kirimiro, and South Imbo have fallen back in Phase 3 due to water shortage and population displacement. The situation in the south-east region of the country (Moso), which is structurally food insecure, is worsening due to the population displacement and prevalence of climatic disturbances that limit access to food. Food assistance and basic agricultural inputs are needed during the season 2016A to support livelihoods and boost production of the most affected households. 

The Agricultural season 2015B was promising high performance but the period of maturation and harvest for major crops coincided with the election period and population’s movements, which have mortgaged crops and food stock which are currently estimated at between one and two months. 

The analysis classified in phase 3 Bugesera, the Sub-humid lands in the North Central, the Eastern depressions (Moso) and South Imbo, whose households have been destabilized by the population’s movements, climate hazards and structural factors.

The situation is expected to be worrying between September-November period due to the return of the majority of displaced households whose reinstatement in the areas will require a lot of resources. 

The prevalence of acute malnutrition is reduced in Kirundo due to the harvest period and probably the movement of the vulnerable communities to neighbouring countries; while in the south of the country, in the Nyanza Lac municipality, the acute malnutrition is very high mainly due to the depletion of crops and assets. 

The early arrival of the lean season and El Nino would negatively affect the nutritional status of the most vulnerable households in the coming months. 

The are no population estimates available for this analysis.

Households most vulnerable to population movements particularly in the North and South-East should be a priority in agricultural support during the implementation of the 2016A season (input assistance) and for initiatives to build community resilience.