Notice: Indicative IPC Acute Phase Classification is a new pilot initiative by the IPC GSU to allow classification of areas when (i) the minimum confidence level of analyses is not reached due to absence of reliable or up to date outcome evidence as a result of lack of humanitarian access and (ii) the area classification is reviewed and cleared as plausible by the IPC GSU Quality Review team. More info at: http://www.ipcinfo.org/ipcinfo-technical-development/ipc-indicative-analysis-prototype/en/

Indicative Current Situation Analysis in all 32 Provinces: 

An estimated 2.5 million people are classified in acute food insecurity crisis and emergency over September to November 2015 (2.3 million in Crisis and 208,000 in Emergency). They are unable to meet their food consumption needs. The highest proportions are located in four provinces, Ghor, Badakhstan, Nuristan and Samangan.

Moreover, it is estimated that 7.8 million people are in Stress (Phase 2) over the analysis period. This population is minimally able to meet their food but have to engage in negative coping to meet nonfood expenditures. This share of population is at high risk of further eroding livelihood assets in lean season and falling into a Crisis-Phase 3 situation.

A total of 16.8 million people have currently achieved food security. These people are able to meet food and essential nonfood needs without engaging in atypical, unsustainable strategies to access food and income, including any reliance on humanitarian aid.

Good rainfall has contributed to improved harvest and livestock body condition in most of the provinces. Besides, availability of beans, vegetables, fruits and nuts in best parts of the country are expected to significantly improve diet quality and provide more food options to households. Increased food stock in households is anticipated to significantly reduce market dependency, even in provinces where wheat is deficient.

Acute food insecurity in this post-harvest situation is a result of high insecurity; limited market functionality that distorts food prices; deteriorating purchasing power of the poor, lower resilience of disaster affected populations; and serious erosion or depletion of livelihood assets during a hard 2015 lean season in many provinces.

Conflict continues to be one of the main food security drivers in Afghanistan in 2015. It has caused growing displacement of more than 103,000 individuals in the first half of the year. This is an increase of more than 40 percent from 2014 during the same period. By end of year 2015, the IDP Task forces in the regions have estimated that more than 324,000 individuals may become displaced due to conflict.
Generally, food utilization is inadequate to meet food consumption.
Poor access to safe water and improved sanitation, inadequate food preparation and storage, combined with high illiteracy rates of women are an impediment.

Humanitarian assistance is not reaching certain disaster affected populations due to conflicts or remoteness of their location, especially in Southern and North Eastern Afghanistan. This is critically threatening their lives and livelihoods.

Projected Situation Analysis in 18 Provinces

• Eight provinces have been projected to move from Phase 2 to Phase 3;
• Three provinces would remain in Phase 3 with increased population in Phase 3 and 4;
• Six provinces would remain in Phase 2 .

In total eleven provinces have been classified in Phase 3. Of the total population in the 17 Provinces 19 percent are in Phase 3 and 5 percent are in Phase 4 situation. However in three provinces Badhakshan, Kunduz and Paktika 10 to 15 percent of the population are in Phase 4 Emergency situation who would need lives and livelihoods saving support. A large part of the Phase 4 population in the three provinces are refugees from Pakistan.

The main driving factors of food insecurity in the analyzed period are:

• high insecurity due to conflict and consequent internal displacement
• inadequate food utilizatioin due to poor access to safe water and improved sanitation, inadequate food preparation and storage, combined with high illiteracy rates of women
• limited market functionality that distorts food prices
• deteriorating purchasing power of the poor
• lower resilience of disaster affected population
• serious erosion or depletion of livelihood assets during a hard 2015 lean season in many provinces

Recommendations for Next Steps and Decision Making

• As Refugees from Pakistan in the south regions of the country are settled, in order to know the exact situation it requires further evidence based analysis for the purpose of strategic intervention.
• Thresholds, with the support of specialists, could be developed for some key contributing factors indicators taking into account livelihoods. 
• IPC National TWG and AFSTT technical capacity on food security and nutrition analysis must be reinforced; especially focusing on indicators, livelihoods, and seasonality. 
• It is recommended that stakeholders conduct more livelihood based assessments and more nutrition surveys. Nutrition surveillance data would also add value to the analysis. 
• The seasonal assessment should be carried out at least twice a year in Afghanistan to timely inform the IPC. It may not be necessary to cover all 34 provinces, or use the same detailed questionnaire in both assessments. 
• Information from the Ministry of Trade should be fully incorporated into the analysis in the future. In view of high commodity prices in a number of provinces in Afghanistan, there is need to better understand market systems, particularly where disruptions are occurring.