According to the IPC analysis conducted in September 2014, 1 province is in Phase 4, 15 provinces are in Phase 3, 17 in Phase 2 and 1 in Phase 1. Around 4.5% of the total population (1.183 million people) is in Phase 4 (Emergency), 18.8% (4.902 million) in Phase 3 (Crisis), 26.3% (6.841 million) in Phase 2 (Stressed) and 51.2% (13.328 million) in Phase 1 (Minimal).

According to the Seasonal Food Security Assessment (May-June) 2014, 38.4% of the households were having poor food consumption, while only 23.2% had acceptable food consumption. On household hunger scale (HHS), the province has 22% of households in severe hunger or above. According to food diversity scale, 10.8% of the households consume less than 4 food groups, while 82% less than 8.

Livestock holding declined during 2014 (cattle declined by 3.3%, while goats by 30%). Similarly, a significant decline was witnessed in poultry holding. A wide food gap was observed as food stock holding declined by 15.8% while food consumption deteriorated by more than 30% compared to last year. The terms of trade between labour wage and wheat flour price has been worsened by 29.4%, while labor work was available for only 8 days a month. 

According to the National Risk and Vulnerability Assessment (NRVA), which is conducted every two to three years, Badakhshan is classified in Category 5 (extremely food insecure). The NRVA 2011-12 found that 78.5% of the population was food insecure (the highest of all provinces). However, the acute malnutrition per NNS 2013 was found as 9.3% (GAM), while underweight is 32.7%. 

Projected situation for November 2014 - March 2015
High food insecurity is projected for the period from November 2014 to March 2015. The situation is expected to deteriorate as a result of severe winter conditions, heavy snow and the blockage of roads in certain provinces. Market prices are expected to increase, as per the seasonal pattern, while food availability will remain an issue. The high rate of livelihood change and limited job opportunities will result in higher rate of food insecurity. Bamyan and Daykundi, Nooristan and Badghis provinces are expected to shift from Phase 3 to 4 because of multiple issues mentioned above. Badghis is facing a crop failure this year and thus food insecurity will further increase in winter with lower availability and poor access. Ghazni province is expected to deteriorate from Phase 2 to 3. While other provinces should remain in the same phase, a higher proportion of the total population will possibly enter in to a worse phase. 

Recommendations

• IPC acute food security analysis should be repeated in post-harvest situation, depending on availability of data and funds.
• AFSTT and IRTGs technical capacity should be strengthened.
• Government (MAIL) leadership in the IPC process should be strengthened during transition period, however, major partners should be kept intact in the process.
• Respective UN agencies, Government and NGOs should participate in and commit to support IRTGs on a regular basis.
• The Seasonal Food Security Assessment is suggested to be conducted at post-harvest time, around Jul-Aug 2015.
• Opportunity to conduct the IPC analysis at district level should be initiated, depending on data availability