178th country by GDP in 2010, the Central African Republic (CAR) continues to face the deterioration of the humanitarian situation as a result of recurrent armed conflicts, with dramatic effects on the vulnerability of rural communities (very poor health infrastructures, armed gangs Terror, and a nutritional state alarment).

The deep security crisis underway, started in December 2012 by the Séléka coalition and which led to the reversal of power in March 2013, had considerable consequences for the entire Central African territory. The conflict has caused a great deal of loss of life and looting of public and private property, kidnappings and violations of human rights, internally displaced persons and refugees in neighboring countries. The consequences are

Mass displacements of the affected populations, about 2,000,000 people including 60,821 refugees in neighboring countries according to the latest OCHA estimates.

The most recent episode of renewed insecurity in early December 2013 deeply affected the capital Bangui, but also more subdued the prefectures of Lobaye, Ouham-Pendé, Ouham and Ombella-Mpoko.

The temporary improvement of food security in rural areas is due to the harvests of the 2012/2013 season that have taken place since August 2013, although very reduced by the war. In addition, the November analysis were overwhelmed by the resurgence of insecurity in December. A food deterioration was anticipated in February 2014 before these new events related to insecuirty, the situation may further worsen. In addition, while the analysis was concentrated on rural populations, it is necessary that even the capital be the subject of the next analysis, as well as other cities which were deeply affected by the attacks of December 2013. In-depth investigations into the food security are recommended for these analyses, which can better guide consensus decision-making on emergency, medium and long-term rehabilitation of food security.

The main driving factors for food insecurity in the Central African Republic are prolonged conflict, mass internal displacements and insecurity which threaten livelihoods, disrupting market cycles and subtracting the only income sources.

Populations in humanitarian phases (IPC Phases 3 and 4) represent 7.3% and 18.4% of the rural populations respectively, approximately 900,000 people in total. Given that 400,000 households, which have not been investigated, are (in September 2013) hosted on IDP sites, the total number of persons in humanitarian phases is increased to 1,300,000. By comparison with the situation of July 2013 which recorded the same order of people in the humanitarian phase, food security is relatively slightly improved by the current crops. Indeed, the number of displaced persons July and November from 200,000 to 400,000 people, which means that the number of people in humanitarian decreased in rural areas between the two periods in the same proportion.

This analysis has benefited from the in-depth evaluation of food security and has been able to draw conclusions proportional to the situation which will prevail throughout December. The recent evolution of the war has certainly changed the conditions observed in October by the in-depth survey in the most affected regions, but especially in the capital, which has been the most targeted since the beginning of December. In order to allow dynamic management of the crisis and anticipate food disasters it is recommended to:

• Update data on the impact of war on livelihoods and food consumption but also on nutrition;
• Organize training for the newly added members of the TWG from the regions, thus enabling decentralized monitoring of the very dynamic and volatile food security;
• Strengthen coordination on data collection and management.