Somalia: Acute Food Insecurity Situation July - September 2022 and Projection for October - December 2022
RELEASE DATE
12.09.2022
VALIDITY PERIOD
01.07.2022 > 31.12.2022

Key
results


Recommendations
& next steps


Acute
Malnutrition


Approximately 6.7 million people across Somalia are expected to face high levels of acute food insecurity (IPC Phase 3 or above) between October and December 2022. This includes 2.2 million people who are expected to be in Emergency (IPC Phase 4) and at least 300,000 people in Catastrophe (IPC Phase 5). Furthermore, Famine (IPC Phase 5) is projected among rural residents in Baidoa and Burhakaba districts and displaced people in Baidoa town of Bay region in southern Somalia, where malnutrition and mortality levels are already at alarming levels. These projections reflect the population still in need of urgent assistance after accounting for already planned assistance for October to December 2022. Humanitarian needs are extremely high due to the impacts of four consecutive seasons of poor rainfall, an anticipated fifth season of below-average rainfall from October to December, and exceptionally high food prices, exacerbated by concurrent conflict/insecurity and disease outbreaks (primarily acute watery diarrhea/cholera and measles).

In addition to the Famine (IPC Phase 5) projection in two districts of Bay Region, several areas in central and southern Somalia face an increased Risk of Famine through at least December 2022 if (1) the 2022 Deyr season rainfall turns out to be poorer than currently predicted, leading to more crop and livestock production failures and (2) humanitarian assistance does not reach the country’s most vulnerable populations. The areas and population groups facing an increased Risk of Famine are Hawd Pastoral of Central and Hiiraan; Addun Pastoral of Northeast and Central; Coastal Deeh Pastoral of Central; Sorghum High Potential Agropastoral of Middle Shabelle; and IDP settlements in Mogadishu, Garowe, Galkacyo, and Dollow. Critical (IPC Phase 4) levels of acute malnutrition and excess mortality levels are already occurring in these areas. The delivery of the ongoing response is currently mitigating the size of the acutely food insecure population. Levels of acute food insecurity across Somalia remain high and will further deteriorate if a multisectoral and coordinated response is not scaled up and sustained.

Between July and September 2022, an estimated 4.3 million people (or 26% of the total population) are experiencing Crisis or worse (IPC Phase 3 or higher), including 121,000 people estimated to be in Catastrophe (IPC Phase 5). Current levels of food assistance delivery have increased compared to earlier in the year, reaching an average of 3.1 million people per month between April and June 2022 and 4.5 million people per month between July and September 2022. However, based on current plans and funding levels, humanitarian food assistance delivery is expected to reduce by half in November and December 2022. The nutrition situation has also deteriorated across most of the country. Acute malnutrition case admissions among children under age five have continued to rise sharply. The total estimated acute malnutrition burden for Somalia from August 2022 to July 2023 is approximately 1.8 million children. This figure represents 54.5 percent of the total population of children in Somalia and includes 513,550 children who are likely to be severely malnourished.


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