Sudan: Acute Food Insecurity Projection Update October - December 2020
Projection update shows higher levels of acute food insecurity than forecast in June 2020
01.10.2020 > 31.12.2020


& next steps



Flooding, rampant inflation, political instability and tribal clashes have triggered higher levels of acute food insecurity during the period of October - December 2020, compared to what had been forecasted for the same period in the last projection analysis conducted in June 2020. During the projection update of October - December 2020, an estimated 7.1 million people, representing 16% of the total analysed population, are expected to face high levels of acute food insecurity (IPC Phase 3 or above) through December 2020 and are in need of urgent action to save lives, protect livelihoods and reduce food consumption gaps. Nearly 1.3 million people will likely remain in Emergency (IPC Phase 4), nearly 6 million people in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) and over 17 million people are estimated to be in Stressed (IPC Phase 2). This marks an increase of 2 percentage points (from 6.4 million to 7.1 million) of people in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) and Emergency (IPC Phase 4), compared to the projection made in June 2020 for the October - December 2020 period.

Key Drivers:

  • Inflation: In August 2020, the year-on-year inflation rate increased by 214% compared to August 2019, resulting in high prices of food commodities and agricultural inputs.
  • Flooding: Over 875,000 people were directly affected by flooding, including around 155 deaths; over 175,000 houses either destroyed or damaged; and around 1.4 million hectares of cropped land submerged by waters.
  • Displacement: Around 2.4 million people have been displaced due to flooding, and political instability/social unrest resulting from tribal clashes in Eastern Sudan. 


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