Overview
Due to the combined effects of widespread and severe flooding, desert locust infestation, socioe-conomic impacts of COVID-19 and the cumulative impacts of previous shocks, up to 2.1 million people across Somalia are expected to face high levels of acute food insecurity (IPC Phase 3 or above) through December 2020 in the absence of humanitarian assistance. In addition, 849,900 children under the age of five are likely to be acutely malnourished through August 2021.
Sustained and large-scale humanitarian assistance and government support are currently preventing a more severe situation in many areas. Desert locusts continue to pose a serious risk of damage to both pasture and crops at least until the end of 2020. In the current period, between July and September, the number of people in high acute food insecurity (IPC Phase 3 or above) was estimated at 1.3 million.
The 2020 Deyr (October-December) rainfall season is likely to be below-average to average across the country, which could lead to drought and trigger a worsening of the humanitarian situation if the 2021 Gu (April-June) season rainfall is also delayed or performs poorly.
Key Drivers
- Desert Locusts continue to pose a serious risk of damage to both pasture and crops until at least the end of 2020.
- Severe riverine and flash floods have caused significant population displacement and damage to property, infrastructure, farmland, and crops.
- COVID-19 mitigation measures have led to increased food prices, a decline in remittances, and fewer employment/income opportunities in urban areas.
Response Priorities
- Save lives and reduce food consumption gaps for people in IPC Phases 3 and 4;
- Protect and save livelihoods for people in IPC Phases 2, 3 and 4; and
- Reduce acute malnutrition and mortality.
More specifically:
Improved access to food through conditional and unconditional transfers
- Food Assistance provided using the most appropriate modality (direct food distribution, cash or vouchers).
- Support households through cash plus for farmers and livestock keepers.
- Multipurpose income assistance.
- Construction/rehabilitation of community productive assets.
- Capacity building, training and knowledge transfer on areas that can enhance household income generating potential (Good agricultural practice, CAHWS, Fall Army Worm control, desert locust control, community-based disaster risk management, vocational trainings, etc.)
Livelihood asset protection
- Agriculture: Provide support to agriculture-based livelihoods in the form of input packages including essential items such as seeds, tools, fertilizers.
- Support to irrigation systems.
- Support agriculture-based community/households with tillage (tractors hours).
- Support to fisher folk through provision of essential assets such fishing gears.
- Provide input support for poultry farming.
- Livestock: Support communities who keep livestock by launching country-wide vaccination campaigns, disease identification, treatment and vaccinations.
Reduce acute malnutrition and mortality
- Provide health and nutrition support for acutely malnourished children.
- Expand the coverage of measles vaccination and Vitamin A supplementation.
- Expand the coverage of WASH services.
- Maternal and Child Health programmes.
Situation Monitoring and Update
Due to multiple threats facing the population of Somalia, the food security and nutrition situation requires close monitoring of risk factors associated with food security and nutrition.
Risk Factors to Monitor
- Performance of the 2020 October-December Deyr season rainfall
- Shabelle and Juba river levels
- Availability of pasture and water
- Food prices, price of water and livestock prices, wage labor rates and terms of trade
- Desert Locust infestation
- Livestock exports
- Flow of external remittances to Somalia
- Socio-economic impacts of COVID-19
- Civil insecurity and conflict
- Population displacement due to various factors
- AWD/cholera and measles outbreak
- Admission of acutely malnourished children to treatment programmes
To view the Acute Malnutrition maps and tables for this analysis, please click here.
The current nutrition situation is likely to deteriorate between October to December 2020 among some population groups (Addun Pastoral, Guban Pastoral, NW Agropastoral, Hargeisa Urban, Burao Urban, Baioa IDPs and Hiran region) due to seasonal factors as well as an expected deterioration in food security conditions (access to milk, declining household cereal food stocks and a likely increase in cereal prices). All other livelihoods are likely to sustain their current IPC AMN classification phases.
In the projection period, between October and December 2020, a Critical (IPC AMN Phase 4) prevalence of Global Acute Malnutrition (GAM ≥ 15%) is anticipated in these population groups: Bossasso IDPs, Garowe IDPs, Galkacyo IDPs, Beletweyne IDPs and urban, Mogadishu IDPs, Baidoa IDPs, East Golis pastoral, Hiran region, Elbarde district of Bakool region, Middle and Lower Shabelle Riverine and Middle and Lower Juba Riverine livelihoods.
The estimated number of children under the age of five likely to be acutely malnourished through June 2021 (total acute malnutrition burden) is 849,900, including 143,400 children likely to be severely malnourished.