Mozambique: Acute Food Insecurity and Acute Malnutrition Situation October 2019 - March 2020 (retrospective analysis), April - September 2020 and October - November 2020
More than 130,000 people in high acute food insecurity in 7 districts of Mozambique during the lean season
VALIDITY PERIOD
01.10.2019 > 30.11.2020
OCTOBER 2019 - MARCH 2020 (retrospective analysis) 
APRIL - SEPTEMBER 2020 
OCTOBER - NOVEMBER 2020 
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Key
results


Population
estimates


Recommendations
& next steps


Acute
Malnutrition


Overview

Between April and September 2020, 135,000 people (12% of the population analysed) face Crisis levels of acute food insecurity (IPC Phase 3) in the 7 districts analysed in Tete and Cabo Delgado provinces. Between October and November 2020, it is estimated that the number of people facing high acute food insecurity (IPC Phase 3 or above) will increase to 285,000 people (26% of the population analysed) in the 7 districts analysed.

From April to September 2020, the district of Ibo is in a situation of Crisis (IPC Phase 3) and the rest of the districts are in a situation of Stress (IPC Phase 2). In the lean season, from October to November 2020, all the districts will likely move to IPC Phase 3 (Crisis), with the exception of Namuno and Maravia districts, which will remain in a Stressed situation (IPC Phase 2).

It is estimated that about 27,747 children aged 6-59 months need treatment for acute malnutrition in the 7 districts analysed between April 2020 and April 2021. Of these, 5,958 need treatment for Severe Acute Malnutrition and 21,789 for Moderate Acute Malnutrition. Regarding the severity of the acute malnutrition situation, the situation may deteriorate in two districts (Mágoè and Mutarara) in the seven districts analysed during the April to September 2020 period, and are likely to move to the Alert situation (Phase 2 of IPC AMN). Two more districts (Ibo and Namuno) may move to the Serious situation (Phase 3 of IPC AMN), and the remaining districts, although the situation may deteriorate, may remain in the same phases: IPC AMN Phase 2 - Alert (Cahora-Bassa and Chiúta) and IPC AMN Phase 3 - Serious (Maravia).

Key Drivers

Between April and September 2020, rural households will have access to food from their own production (current harvest), food prices will be stable with a tendency to reduce and the impacts of COVID-19 prevention measures are currently minimal in rural areas. The main factors that have led to the increase of people in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) in the period from October to November 2020, are the depletion of food reserves, the increase of food prices and the increase of the impacts of COVID-19. The effects of COVID-19 on the health system that led to the suspension, restriction and adaptation of various health programs at the country level, as well as the vulnerability that districts were already facing even before the pandemic, were the main factors identified to likely drive the projected deterioration. The situation is expected to continue to deteriorate between October and November 2020. Only the district of Cahora-Bassa may deteriorate into a more severe situation, and the remaining districts are likely to r main in the same phases. In this period, the deterioration is likely to be driven in the large part by the continuing impacts of COVID-19 on health systems, especially as the peak of COVID-19 infections is expected throughout this period. In addition to the already predicted deterioration in acute food insecurity in the projection period, since it is only valid for two months, which are just the beginning of the season, the health risk factors for acute malnutrition may not have deteriorated yet.

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