How Severe, How Many and When: Out of the total population of 7.96 million people in the 133 analysed districts, 2 million were estimated to be highly food insecure (IPC Phase 3 and above) in the period from February to April 2020, representing 25% of the population analysed. In the period from July to December 2020, the population facing high levels of acute food insecurity (IPC Phase 3 and above) is estimated to increase to 3.2 million people (40% of the analysed population) if humanitarian food assistance is kept at the current levels.
Where and Who: Food insecurity is high in areas characterised by active fighting, which leads to access restrictions that affect coverage of humanitarian food assistance, access to markets, and constant population displacements. The analysis detects 16 districts to be in Emergency (IPC Phase 4), while 103 of the 133 districts are classified in Crisis (IPC Phase 3). In terms of severity, the 16 worst affected (Phase 4) districts are located in eight governorates: Ad Dhalee (3), Marib (3), Al Bayda (2), Shabwah (2), Abyan (2), Taizz (2), Al Jawf (1) and Hadramout (1). In terms of magnitude, the governorates with the highest numbers of people in Crisis or worse (IPC Phase 3 or above) are Taiz (with 591,000 people in IPC Phase 3 and above), Lahj (489,500) and Hadhramaut (465,000).
Why: The continued conflict, the economic crisis further exacerbated by COVID-19 restriction measures, and natural hazards affecting the already low levels of local production, have significantly eroded the ability of households to cope with new and intensifying shocks. The erosion of households’ purchasing power affects access to food and agricultural inputs, especially with an increased strain on remittances due to COVID-19 restrictions abroad. A high percentage of households are highly reliant on humanitarian food assistance to meet their daily food needs.
Response Priorities
- Ensure continued and unhindered provision of direct food assistance to save lives and measures to protect livelihoods of populations estimated to be in IPC Phase 4 (Emergency) and IPC Phase 3 (Crisis). Special attention should be given to displaced people and fragile populations facing major food consumption gaps in priority districts;
- Consider a complimentary food assistance approach to protect livelihoods by reducing food consumption gaps of the populations estimated to be in IPC Phase 3 (Crisis); including but not limited to:
- Promote the restoration and recovery of livelihoods of populations in IPC Phase 3 through the provision of agricultural inputs (seeds, plant material, tools, and irrigation system) and livestock, with particular focus on the areas affected by natural hazards such as Fall Armyworm, desert locusts and floods
- Develop short to medium term interventions to support people with vulnerable urban livelihoods who suffer from COVID-19 mitigation measures and the loss of income opportunities
- Build and strengthen community resilience by providing safety nets; scale-up programmes for improved self-reliance, and social protection to vulnerable communities classified under IPC Phase 2 (Stressed) and above
- Support activities that promote the prevention of post-harvest losses
- Support rehabilitation of water infrastructures that have been damaged by floods to reduce the impacts of future floods that are likely to happen during the cyclone season;
- Promote good nutritional practices at the household level through nutrition sensitive activities such as home gardening and educational awareness on food and water safety;
- Strengthen early warning and general food security monitoring systems to mitigate the negative impact of shocks, monitor key assumptions driving the analysis, and enable a rapid and coordinated response.
Plans for the next analysis
This partial analysis of 133 districts will be merged into one IPC report with the remaining districts of Yemen in the coming months. An IPC Acute Malnutrition analysis is expected to be conducted for the 133 districts in the coming weeks and results included in the final Yemen IPC 2020 whole country report.
Situation Monitoring and Key Indicators to monitor during the projection period
The IPC Technical Working Group, through its partners and stakeholders, will actively monitor the below situation and indicators throughout the July - December 2020 period;
- Economic indicators and their trends: Key indicators will be the depreciation of the YER against the USD, the replenishment rate and amount of foreign reserves, importers’ access to letters of credit, trends in remittances, and food prices for key commodities in Yemen;
- Household purchasing power, indicators being retail markets, availability and access to food commodities and other key non-food commodities;
- Impact of COVID-19 on food systems: import delays, logistical barriers, market functionality from farm gate level, post-harvest losses, loss of income and job opportunities and unprecedented increase in number of cases and deaths ;
- Humanitarian funding and access constraints affecting delivery of humanitarian assistance;
- Desert locust, Fall Armyworm, human, plant and livestock diseases: ecologically favourable conditions, new breeding areas coming up etc.;
- Natural hazards such as floods, cyclones and hurricanes that affect productive activities and cause displacement;
- Malnutrition levels: availability and access to selective feeding programs by malnourished children and other vulnerable individuals;
- Conflict dynamics and developments in Al Hudaydah including the future of the Stockholm agreement.