How severe, how many and when: During the month of May 2020, which coincides with the lean season, approximately 42,000 people (0.4%) were classified in Emergency (IPC Phase 4), while approximately 1,402,000 people (13%) were classified in Crisis (IPC Phase 3), 3,919,000 (36%) in Stress (IPC Phase 2) and 5,587,000 (51%) as Food Secure (IPC Phase 1). During the projected period, which will coincide with the second harvest period of 2020, i.e. from June to August 2020, there could be a decrease in the population in Crisis and Emergency phases to about 859,000 people (8%), i.e. 42,000 in Emergency (0.4%) and 817,000 (7%) in Crisis. For the same projected analysis period, 3,108,000 people, or 28%, were classified in Stress (IPC Phase 2) and 6,983,000 people (64%) in Food Security (IPC Phase 1).
Where and who: For the current analysis period, as well as for the projected period, all Livelihood Zones have been classified in Stress (IPC Phase 2). However, a portion of the populations in these same zones are in Emergency (IPC Phase 4) and others in Crisis (IPC Phase 3). The most affected areas are those in the Congo Nile Ridge, High Altitude and Imbo, which have at least 15% of the population in IPC Phase 3 and above. In addition, it should be noted that the populations classified in IPC Phase 4 are mainly in the Imbo zone, where households experienced various shocks between 2019 and early 2020.
Why: Heavy rains followed by floods, hail, landslides and the consequences of COVID-19 mitigation measures were the main factors aggravating the acute food insecurity of very poor households, which are vulnerable to any shock to food insecurity. According to the IOM, hazard monitoring reports and rapid intersectoral assessments, the rising waters of Lake Tanganika and the flooding of rivers flowing into the lake washed away nearly 1,500 hectares of crops, 6,914 family dwellings and displaced 17,792 people from the Gatumba area. The landslides that have occurred in the communes of Bugarama, Muhuta and Rumonge in Rumonge, Musigati of Bubanza and Mugina of Cibitoke since the end of 2019 have, for their part, swept away nearly 1,000 hectares of crops and 797 houses, also causing 1,950 displaced persons. Furthermore, the halt in cross-border movements, which is one of the measures to limit the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic, has meant that households in the Livelihood Zones of Imbo Plain (the most affected by the floods), Congo Nile Ridge, Eastern Depressions, Eastern Dry Plateaux and Buragane have been able to sell their labour in the DRC and Tanzania, on which they depend, especially during the lean season, and to trade there.
The analysis of the current period concludes that 1% of the population is classified in Emergency (IPC Phase 4) and 12% in Crisis (IPC Phase 3). The proportion of the population in Stress (IPC Phase 2) is 36% and the food secure proportion (IPC Phase 1) is 51%. In the projection period, it is estimated that the population in IPC Phases 3 and 4 will increase to 7%, with less than 1% in Emergency. The recommendations made by the analysis range from assistance for people who have been hit by various shocks, to livelihood restoration, resilience building and development actions. These will include:
- Provide direct food assistance in kind and/or cash, as well as nutritional care, with priority to populations classified in IPC Phases 3 and 4.
- Promote the restoration of livelihoods through assistance in agricultural inputs (seeds, plant material, small tools and irrigation system) and livestock, with a focus on the areas of the Northern Depressions and the populations in Phase 3 of the Imbo Plain and the Eastern Depressions who are victims of climatic hazards, and on the areas of the Wet Plateaux and Eastern Dry Plateaux which are prey to very pronounced structural problems.
- Promote market gardening in the regions most exposed to water deficits through the distribution of inputs and technical support to develop micro and small-scale irrigation.
- Carry out awareness-raising activities and nutritional training to increase the consumption of diversified foods and good culinary practices, particularly in the regions of the Eastern Depressions and Northern Depression, where dietary diversity is out of step with household food access.
- Strengthen early warning systems to prevent shocks and provide a rapid and coordinated response to limit their negative impact.
- Ensure the systematic extension and sensitisation of community granaries, as well as security stocks.
- Continue the extension, dissemination and operationalisation of the national action plan for the integrated control of the Fall Armyworm.
- Carry out interventions to ensure access to drinking water for households, particularly in the Imbo Plain and in the Northern and Eastern Depressions.
- Continue and strengthen joint early recovery and resilience actions for the population in Phase 3 (Crisis) in the form of recapitalisation of small livestock, access to quality agricultural inputs, paid work for the rehabilitation of watersheds and other socio-economic infrastructure (labour-based activities), small credits; as well as the diversification of income-generating activities to strengthen household resilience of those in Phases 2 and 3. FAO’s more integrated “Resilience Fund” approach has proven its worth by preserving the productive capital of beneficiary households even in the communes/hills of Kirundo Province that were affected by the water deficit of the 2019 first planting season.
- Organise with members of the IPC Technical Working Group (TWG), at country, regional and central level, a workshop on lessons learned for greater ownership of the IPC analysis process.
- Undertake a new IPC Version 3.0 Level 1 training on the new IPC Version 3.0 to upgrade certified Level 1 analysts from Version 2.0 and for new targeted managers, with the aim of replacing analysts who resign due to their new responsibilities or lack of availability.