Madagascar: Acute Food Insecurity Situation July - October 2019 and Projections for November 2019 - March 2020 and April - June 2020
Analysis of the Great South and the Great South-East
VALIDITY PERIOD
01.07.2019 > 30.06.2020
July - October 2019 
November 2019 - March 2020 
April - June 2020 
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Key
results


Population
estimates


Recommendations
& next steps


Acute
Malnutrition


For the period from July to October 2019, compared to 2018 for the same period, the situation has improved considerably: only one district (Ampanihy) out of the 13 analysed is in Crisis (IPC Phase 3), and the rest are in Stress (IPC Phase 2). No district is in IPC Phase 4.  Despite this improvement, in all the areas analysed, more than 500,000 people are in severe acute food insecurity (IPC Phase 3 and above), representing 14% of the population in the areas analysed. Ampanihy District has a higher proportion of the population in this category (25% of the population) than other districts, with nearly 99,600 people. 

From November 2019 to March 2020, which coincides with the lean season, it is estimated that the situation will likely worsen, with all districts moving to IPC Phase 3 (Crisis) except Tulear II and Manakara Atsimo. The West Ampanihy District will likely remain in IPC Phase 3 and will continue to record the highest population and proportion of people in IPC Phase 4 (30%), and also between April and June 2020 (20%) during the harvest period. 

In all the periods analysed, the key drivers behind the food insecurity situation in these areas include limited access to food, given the high proportion of the household income that is dedicated to purchase of food as well as the precariousness of income-generating activities, and hazards and shocks negatively impacting food availability, particularly the attack of crop pests (Fall Armyworms, rats, locusts). Structural poverty is also a factor limiting the household's ability to rebound in the event of shocks, especially in terms of rebuilding livelihoods.

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